Bear Market? Not There Yet

Everyone is making a big point that the Dow has reached bear market territory, which is down 20 percent from its previous highs. This is true, but may not be interesting, since Lowry's and others have noted that the average bear market in the last last 80 years has been 30 percent off its highs.

Furthermore, while big caps are getting killed, it is a different story elsewhere. The small-cap Russell 2000 is down 18 percent from its July high but well off its lows in March. The Midcap Index (11 percent off its July 2007 highs) is also well above its March lows.

The hope here is for a short-term bounce. The Dow has been up 15 of the last 18 years on the first day of the third quarter (that's July 1, folks), according to Stock Trader's Almanac. I know, pretty obscure, but that's the kind of obscure stats that are being passed around these days.

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