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The latest action that's got hearts racing stems from the options market. The volume of call options swelled in the Financial Select Sector SPDR [XLF
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] earlier in the week.
Typically that would be seen as a bullish sign; that investors were laying down bets on a recovery in the sector hit hardest by the year-old credit crisis.
Yet some option experts cautioned against taking that activity at face value because a hefty portion of that volume came from traders selling near-term call positions, a trade that may well be a bet on more trouble ahead for banks, brokers and insurance companies.
Is the bank stock rally for real or are we in for more turmoil?
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“Don’t make too much of the rally,” says Stifel Nicolaus analyst Christopher Mutascio on Fast Money. “I think we could see banks sell-off when we go into bank earnings season in the next 3 or 4 weeks.
Mutascio is worried about the commercial real estate loans. "The first phase of the credit crisis was related to residential real estate," he says. "but we have more ills to come."
He thinks small business is really "the canary in the coal mine." If you start seeing those loans go bad then commercial morgage could follow," because it's those small businesses who are paying rent to the commercial properties.
How do you trade it?
I think there’s a lot more pain to come in commercial real estate, says Karen Finerman. I mean someone made the commercial real estate loans in Florida! And those will not be good loans. I’m short the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF [IYR
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] as well as BB&T [BBT
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] which is a bank that’s highly exposed to the space.
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Trader disclosure: On Aug 29, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders;Karabell Owns (AAPL), (BHP), (CHL), (GLD), (GOOG), (JPM), (NOK), (SLB); Najarian Owns (LEH) Puts Spread; Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (WFC) Call Spread
Najarian Owns (MS) And Is Short (MS) Call; Najarian Owns (NOK) And Is Short (NOK) Call; Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (SUN), (TSO), (VLO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (C) Leaps; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (GLNG); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (IJR), (BBT), (COF); Terranova Owns (NOV), (KOL), (X), (GS), (SA), (VLO), (RIMM), (AAPL), (EOG); Terranova Owns (POT); Terranova Owns (FCX)
Terranova Owns (AIG) Puts; Terranova Is Long Dec. 2008 Reformulated Gasoline Crack Futures
Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Phoenix Investment Partners, Ltd.; Phoenix Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (ARE), (BRE), (CNTY), (CLB), (OFC), (DLR), (ESS), (EXR), (FL), (IAT), (IGE), (LNET), (MAC), (OIIM), (PSPT), (DBC), (DBV), (SLB), (SKT), (BLV)
Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Phoenix Diversifier PHOLIO; Phoenix Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV)
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (BBT) In Next 3 Months
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (CMA) In Next 3 Months
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Is A Market Maker In (FITB)
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (FITB) In Next 3 Months
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (NCC) In Next 3 Months
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Or Affiliate Provides Or Has In Past 12 Months Provided Non-Investment Banking, Securities Related Services To (NCC)
(NCC) Is Or In Past 12 Months Was A Client Of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Or Affiliate
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Or Affiliate Has Received Compensation For Non-Investment Banking, Securities Related Services From (NCC) In Past 12 Months
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (RF) In Next 3 Months
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation For (STI) In Next 3 Months
Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (USB) In Next 3 Months
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes