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When market expectations are this low, expect to be surprised. In fact, start buying.
That was Cramer’s message for Monday’s show. A story in this morning’s Wall Street Journal – about how stocks won’t see a full rebound until the middle of 2009 – today has him thinking that negative sentiment on Wall Street is “totally overblown.”
A longstanding Mad Money rule has been that when these types of stories start to appear in the paper, investors should break out their stock shopping lists and get ready. Because despite all the talk, the market’s ready to move.
How does Cramer know? Well, for one thing the housing index, HGX, is up big to 131 from its 52-week low of just under 94. That’s a great sign. It would be hard to have any kind of legitimate recovery as long as housing was unable to find its footing.
Also a model for dealing with failing banks is coming to shape. Just look at Regions Financial’s acquisition of Integrity. The FDIC keeps the bad loans and Regions buys the good parts that are left. This should keep the number of foreclosures hitting the market at lower than expected, which is an extremely positive development.
Cramer’s also a firm believer that lower gas prices – maybe as much as $3 a gallon? – will boost consumer spending, propping up for names like Best Buy [BBY
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], Apple [AAPL
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] and Research in Motion [RIMM
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].
Deflation is key here, too. As commodities decline in price, the Federal Reserve can worry less about raising interest rates, in turn saving banks and maybe even keeping mortgage rates low enough to draw some bargain hunters into the housing market.
Commodity costs, specifically their decline, also helps the companies that were forced to raise prices when those costs were higher. Because the companies won’t reduce prices in tandem with that decline. That means more profits and better-than-expected earnings. Watch for reports from Heinz [HNZ
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], Kimberly-Clark [KMB
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], UPS [UPS
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], FedEx [FDX
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] and Carnival Cruise [CCL
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].
“I think there are just too many positives, including the pervasive negativity,” Cramer said, “for you to be really bearish right now. The turn you saw earlier today when the Dow was up big is for real – although it was up too much – so don’t be fooled by the decline that followed.”
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