How Dems Could Boost Ag Industry
If Barack Obama wins, and given recent polls Cramer thinks he will, then a stock like Terra Nitrogen could work.
Obama’s pledged his support for ethanol, so the agriculture sector should see a resurgence in business under his administration, even with oil prices down to $66 a barrel. Corn demand is expected to grow 33% from 2008 to 2009 due to human, animal and biofuel consumption, all of which will require more fertilizer. And Terra Nitrogen , with more exposure to corn than its peers – Potash , Agrium or Mosaic – is in the best position to take advantage.
The key to Cramer’s thesis here, though, is the dividend. He’s been recommending stocks that usually don’t yield that much but, because of the recent market turmoil, have increased their percentage payout. TNH’s is at 12.8%. Even if the company’s forced to cut its dividend, it’s still a win for investors.
Terra is like Kinder Morgan Energy in that the company’s a master limited partnership. So it’s forced to return its excess cash flow to shareholders in the form of dividends. The minimum quarterly dividend is supposed to be 60.5 cents a share, or 3%, but the past seven quarters have seen a much higher number than that.
The next quarterly dividend is $2.80 a share, but the ex-date is Wednesday, so investors should buy their positions by close of trading Tuesday to qualify.
Cramer likes Terra because its main product, urea ammonium nitrate, is taking share from ammonia. It’s a more versatile fertilizer, he said. Plus, lower natural gas prices here in the States give Terra pricing power overseas.
The downside is that Terra Industries owns 75% of the outstanding common units of TNH. Cramer rarely recommends parent-subsidiary plays, but the yield is so big here, that it’s hard to pass up. So if Obama wins Tuesday, this stock is definitely worth consideration.
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