- 4 Thanksgiving Week Buys For Your Portfolio: Market Pros
- There's a 'Great Chance' For a Double-Dip Recession: Strategist
- Revenge of the Gangsta Nerds
- Will TCU See The "Flutie Effect?"
- Retail Earnings and Sales to Improve in Q4: Analyst
- Consumers Catching the Holiday Spirit
- It's Beginning To Look A Lot More Riskless
- Crescenzi: Claims Level Suggests End to Job Losses
- Hedge Funds Take Early Lead in Warren Buffett's 'Big Bet'
- US Markets Bracing for Selloff on Dubai Debt Worries
- Dubai Struggles to Ease Debt Fears; Investors Rattled
- US Dollar Falls to 14-Year Low Against the Yen
- UK's Darling to Downgrade 2009 Growth Forecast
- US Companies Already Moving on Curbing Emissions
- Fannie Mae to Tighten Lending Standards: Report
- Investing in Good Karma – and Making a Profit
- Retailers Should Believe in Christmas Miracles
- Bankruptcies Jump, Hitting Highest Level in Four Years
MOST SHARED
- Kuoni CEO Sees Recovery in Travel Sector
- Dubai Struggles to Ease Debt Fears; Investors Rattled
- Gold Retreats from Record High as Dollar Rebounds
- China Unveils Carbon Target Ahead of Copenhagen
- Great Britain, No Longer That Great: Investor
- Euro Shares Record Biggest Drop in 7 Months
- Fannie Mae to Tighten Lending Standards: Report
- US Markets Bracing for Selloff On Worries About Dubai's Debt
- UK's Darling to Downgrade 2009 Growth Forecast
- No Thanksgiving Rest for Retailers in Sales Race
ABOUT THIS BLOG
|
This blog will look at the winners and losers in the retail space. Who has the right strategy to capture consumer dollars? It also will look for trends in consumer spending and how that will impact the economy.
Text Size 
Sweet deals inspired shoppers to hit the mall this weekend, but it doesn't look like the buying binge was enough to save the holiday season.
 |
"If you look at P/E's they look very low by historical measures, but there's been no recession like this before," said Neil Currie, an analyst at UBS.
"I think the 'E' part of 'P/E' is very uncertain," he said, referring to the lack of clarity into earnings in a price-to-earnings multiple, which is a common way to judge a stock's value.
According to Currie, the worst may be yet to come. He expects to see bankruptcies and a further slowdown in consumer spending.
 |
"The real difficulty comes in '09," Currie said. "At least people have a reason to spend right now. They're not going to spend as much as they spent last year, but they are going to spend. After the end of this holiday period, I don't know what the catalyst is for people to going out to the stores. Gift cards are going to be down year over year. President's week is going to be very low. I think right through to the summer we're going to see disastrous numbers."
Currie favors retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores [WMT
Loading...
()
], Kroger [KR
Loading...
()
], and CVS [CVS
Loading...
()
] in this environment.
It's been tough for retailers for a while, and this year's holiday season is expected to be the weakest in several decades.
Earlier Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research said that the U.S. slipped into recession in December 2007. But Citigroup retail analyst Kimberly Greenberger said she would have put the start of the retail recession even sooner than that; in September 2007, when buying began to slow for some discretionary categories such as adult apparel.
- To Hear the Full Interview With Currie and Greenberger, Click Here
- To Hear Their Take on Black Friday, Watch This Video
One stock Greenberger likes is Gap [GPS
Loading...
()
]. She owes her opinion to a combination of factors, including valuation and the company's strategy for this holiday season.
According to Greenberger, the company's Old Navy stores went back to their roots this holiday season with a strong message of value, which should resonate well with price-sensitive consumers.
Gap also has some "select and smart" promotions, she said. One example she cited was a "buy one, get one 50 percent off" deal on sweaters that ends today.
Recent Holiday Central Posts:
- For True Love, It's the Most Expensive Christmas Ever
- Amazon Expected to Crush Competitors With 'Ridiculous Deals'
- Shades of Gray for Black Friday
- Malls Roll Out the Red Carpet for Black Friday
- Play Santa or Scrooge? Companies Rethink Gifts
- Turkey Day Will Gobble a Bigger Bite From Your Wallet
- Free Shipping—Pffff. Try 70-Percent Off!
- A Gift Card as the Perfect Gift? Not Anymore.
- What you need to know.
- Ever wished your cab driver would stop nattering and just get to where you're going? Well that moment is near(er).
- Eric Schmidt pledges to create a virtual copy of the Iraq National Museum at Google’s expense.
- Bill Griffeth is taking a leave of absence from CNBC and Power Lunch for a year. Here's a message from Bill.
- More shoppers than ever plan to comparison-shop this season. Who will benefit?
- It may be the most unusual guide to business you'll read.
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes