Dollar In Dumpster: The Trade
By: The dollar hit a 2 1/2-month low against the euro on Thursday and hovered near its weakest level versus the yen since 1995 as investors dumped the U.S. currency in further fallout from the dramatic rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week.
"The dollar ... is vulnerable because of what they're doing in terms of policy and the potential for quantitative easing in the U.S.," says Robert Minikin, senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered in London.
"The dollar remains very much under selling pressure, and we believe that will continue in coming days."
Well if the dollar is heading lower, is that such a bad thing?
According to Harvard economist Martin Feldstein it might not be so bad at all. He says, "I like to think the dollar becomes more competitive. A more competitive dollar is a good thing for the U.S. economy.”
He goes on the say, “It not only helps manufacturing, but by raising the price of imported manufactured goods, it causes American consumers to say, well maybe I don't need that product, maybe I ought to spend some more money on services here in the U.S.”
What’s the trade?
“Coke , McDonalds, Deere and Caterpillar are often the weak dollar plays you hear about,” explains Jon Najarian.
But Najarian doesn't just blindly follow the crowd. He's got ideas of his own. “I’m taking a look at Priceline.com . With 60% of their business coming from overseas I think Priceline is a smart weak dollar play.”
But that's not all. He’s also got an eye on commodities which could benefit from reflation.
In the space he likes Joy Global and Bucyrus ; both companies have huge exposure to mining.
“I think the weak dollar should be good for these miners. And if you sell April at the money options you can get a 26% return which would protect you to a significant drawdown,” he concludes.
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Trader disclosure: On Dec. 18th, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Pete Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread; Pete Najarian Owns (UYG) And Is Short (UYG) Calls; Pete Najarian Owns (HIG) Calls And Is Short (HIG); Pete Najarian Owns (PCLN) Call Spread; Finerman's Firm Owns (IBB), (MSFT), (UNH), (WLP), (AET); Finerman's Firm Owns (ROH) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (OIH) Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (BBT), (USO)
Terranova Is Co-Portfolio Manager Of The Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO: Virtus Diversifier PHOLIO Owns (IGE), (DBC), (DBV)
Terranova Is Chief Alternatives Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.: Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABD), (ARE), (BIG), (OFC), (DLR), (EXR), (IGE), (MAC), (DBC), (DBV), (SKT), (UA), (CLB); Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Seagate Tax Refund Rights
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Jon Najarian Owns (PCLN) Calls
Jon Najarian Owns (JOYG) And Is Short (JOYG) Calls
Jon Najarian Owns (BUCY) And Is Short (BUCY) Calls
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