Where's That Bottom, Again?
Last Monday celebrated investor Doug Kass said on CNBC that we could be a few days from a market bottom. Well???
If you think that Kass is changing his mind, think again. In his column for TheStreet he stands by his bottom call and writes that “If anything, I feel even better today… that my expectation might prove to be accurate.”
We were so intrigued that we invited Kass to be our guest on Fast Money.
In no uncertain terms Kass says, “I see the bottoming process as commencing now!”
Why is a celebrated bear such as Kass turning bullish on stocks when the rest of Wall Street thinks about razor blades and sleeping pills? It’s because “the serious problems have been more than discounted in the world’s equity markets.”
Kass tells the Fast Money traders that he's examined 7 decades worth of numbers and finds, "the market bottoms (when the S&P averages) around 11.5 times normalized earnings. That would be 800 on the S&P and we're at 685."
In other words we're way below that.
Kass also says he looks at a series of issues in his watch list and probably half of them have started to turn positive. One of them is commodities prices; "that's confirmation of stability of economic growth."
In fact you might remember that on February 19th Kass appeared on Fast Money and made a similar case, saying the economy could bottom as soon as next year.
"I expect (the recession), which began in November/December 2007, to end in early 2010, or about 12 months from now,” he said. (Since the stock market is a forward indicator it would start to climb ahead of the turn in the economy.)
What’s the bottom line?
“My sense is that we don't have to wait (too much longer) for a resumption of a new bull market," Kass says.
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Trader disclosure: On Mar. 9th, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Najarian Owns (GDX); Najarian Owns (DNA) Calls; Najarian Owns (FCX) Spread; Najarian Owns (MS) & (MS) Calls; Najarian Owns (MSFT) & (MSFT) Calls; Najarian Owns (PNC) Put Spread; Najarian Owns (X) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (V) & (V) Calls; Najarian Owns (MOS) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (GD) Long Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT); Finerman's Firm Owns (DNA) & (DNA) Calls; Finerman's Firm Own (RIG); Finerman's Firm Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IJR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO), (BBT), (VNO); Seymour Owns (BIDU), (EEM), (FXI), (RIG), (BAC), (CHL); Karabell Owns (AAPL), (BHP), (FCX), (GOOG), (GLD), (GE), (JPM)
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