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Can The Rally Last?

Through most of today, the S&P 500 has remained near or above 800, which is 20 percent above its March lows.

Assuming we close near these levels, today will be the FIFTH 90 percent updside day we have seen this month, following similar days on March 10th, 12th, 17th, and 18th.

This is the best showing we have had since the bear market began over a year and a half ago.

Most importantly, the rallies have come on HIGHER VOLUME.

Also bear in mind that we are coming up against the end of a quarter where many professionals are WAY underexposed to the market.

Still, most market participants are cautious, or remain bearish. In the cautious camp are traders like Dan Greenhaus at Miller Tabak, who noted that "In order to be in line with historical precedents, I have to believe that further lateral trading lies ahead even if such trading is at higher levels than those in which we currently find ourselves."

In the Bear camp, consider this comment from Lowry, the oldest technical analyst service, in a note to investors this morning:

"While there are aspects to this rally that look more promising than any other rally during the past 21 months, the probabilities drawn from our 76 year history still warn of a limited recovery attempt lasting as much as several months, followed by eventual new lows for the broad market."

  • Watch: Bull/Bear Debate: Markets Continue to Rally?

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