What If Stocks Traded Like Oil?
Since bottoming in February at $33/barrel, oil prices have posted a rapid and astounding recovery and are suddenly back above $70 again.
While the 115 percent bounce in crude prices is the envy of many a stock trader (who have "only" been able to book 35 percent gains from the March lows so far), it is important to note and compare the other side of the "V" for oil and stocks... e.g., the sell-off stats.
For the record, from their peak of $147 in July 2008, crude prices fell 75 percent in 6 months to $33.
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By comparison, the Dow Industrials peaked at 14,165 in October 2007, before shedding 7700 points over the next 17 months... for a loss of ''only'' 54 percent.
So, if you felt like heaving when the Dow broke below 7000, imagine how you would have felt had it actually plunged an oil-like 75 percent from the peak? That would have sent to the Dow to levels not seen since 1993...or about 3500!
At the same time, if the Dow's rally from the March lows mirrored that of crude's rebound, we'd be clinking glasses right now with the Industrial Average hovering north of 13,900.
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