S&P 500 Earnings Leaderboard: Biggest Surprises Season to Date

As of yesterday afternoon, ~50% of the S&P 500 companies had reported earnings.

Here's how things stand so far:

  • Companies Exceeding Estimates: 76%
  • Companies Matching Estimates: 10%
  • Companies Falling Below Estimates: 14%

Compared to the same point in time last earnings season, the breakdown has shifted with a significantly larger increase in companies beating vs. missing estimates. At the same point last quarter, 26% of the companies reporting had missed EPS estimates and only 63% had beaten estimates.

Sallie Mae still has had the biggest percent surprise to the upside followed by JP Morgan Chase and Caterpillar . In absolute dollars, financials take 4 of the top 5 slots in the leaderboard. Citigroup leads with $4.7 billion surprise followed by Wells Fargo's $1.1 billion and JP Morgan's surprise of nearly $936 million. Ford is the only non-financial on the list, with an $869 million surprise.

Earnings Leaderboard - Best Performers (as of 7/23)

Company
Symbol
Sector
Date
EPS Est.
Actual
%Chg
Sallie Mae SLM Financials 7/21/2009 0.04 0.31 675%
JP Morgan Chase JPM Financials 7/16/2009 0.04 0.28 600%
Caterpillar CAT Industrials 7/21/2009 0.22 0.72 227%
Whirlpool WHR Cons Disc 7/22/2009 0.51 1.04 104%
Freeport McMoran FCX Materials 7/21/2009 0.69 1.38 100%
Thomson Reuters

On the downside, Allegheny Technologies still leads the losers, reporting a -567% miss. In absolute dollars, Intel leads with its $838 million negative surprise followed by Morgan Stanley's $825 million downside surprises.

Earnings Leaderboard - Biggest Losers (as of 7/23)

Company
Symbol
Sector
Rpt Date
EPS Est.
Actual
%Chg
Allegheny Technologies ATI Materials 7/22/2009 0.03 -0.14 -567%
Nabors Industries NBR Energy 7/21/2009 0.26 -0.68 -362%
Intel INTC Tech 7/14/2009 0.08 -0.07 -188%
Harley Davidson HOG Cons Disc 7/16/2009 0.24 0.08 -67%
Host Hotels HST Financials 7/22/2009 0.24 0.12 -50%
Thomson Reuters

Source:Thomson Reuters

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