Volatility Will Increase, US Will Lead in 2010: Marc Faber
Markets are likely to be more volatile and US markets are likely to outperform emerging markets in 2010, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Doom and Boom Report, told CNBC Wednesday.
"I think 2009 was an extraordinary year for capital gains because both commodities and stocks became extremely oversold," Faber said in an interview.
"I think 2010 is a year when capital preservation will be more important because I expect a lot of volatility up and down," he added.
Since the lows hit in March, US stocks rose by around 70 percent but emerging markets rose by much more than that, according to Faber, who quoted the example of the Russian market which advanced 220 percent.
"My feeling is that the US market will outperform emerging economies in the first six months of 2010," he said, adding that it remains to be seen whether that will be in a context in which markets continue to move up or because emerging markets will give up their gains faster than the US.
In the short term, US Treasurys are oversold because many investors have negative sentiments regarding the US bond market, while stocks are overbought, Faber said.
"I believe that we could have a rebound (in Treasurys) for, say, one to three months," he said.
But longer term, Treasurys prices are likely to come down.
"I'm sorry to say, I don't see much deleveraging… the government is leveraging up," Faber said.
Total credit as a percent of the economy is still increasing and the Federal Reserve is likely to print more money when it will see the recovery is still fragile, he said.
In five to 10 years, stock prices are likely to be higher than they are now, but the dollar will be lower, according to Faber.
Gold, the depositary of trust when central banks print money, is also likely to be higher, he added.