The Bulls Are Naked: Currency Strategist
The bulls' time has run out as investors start to realize the global economy has a structural problem after bad news such as Societe Generale's profit warning and Friday's US jobs data, David Bloom, head of foreign exchange strategy at HSBC, told CNBC Wednesday.
"You get one bad unemployment number, you realize that the bears have massive ammunition. The bulls have nothing, they're naked," Bloom told European "Squawk Box."
In a surprise setback for the world's biggest economy, nonfarm payrolls dropped by 85,000 in December, a much bigger drop than analysts' expectations.
On Wednesday, Societe Generale sent a chill around markets when it warned it was expecting a "slight profit" for the fourth quarter of 2009, way below analysts' forecasts, because of new 1.4 billion-euro ($2.03 billion) writedowns from risky assets.
"Look, this is not over," Bloom said. "There are two types of investors, those with short memories and those with no memories. You have to decide which one you are."
Only investors with no memories will be shocked by this news, while those with short memories will realize that this is a structural problem, according to Bloom. "Good news is only a little bit good. Bad news is awful."
But taking refuge in the dollar is not really an option, as last year's rally was actually caused by a liquidity shortage rather than by the currency's safe haven status, he explained.
"The dollar as a safe haven status is a poppycock," Bloom said. "The dollar is the problem; it's not the safe haven."