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Stocks You May Love on Valentine's

Valentine's day is less than one week away. Historically, the U.S. major indexes have not shown much love on Valentine's Day nor the week after. The S&P has fared worst, with an average loss of -0.13% on Valentine's Day itself. In the week following Valentine's, the NASDAQ Composite has fared worst amongst the three major indexes, averaging a decline of -0.5%. There are, however, some companies that may benefit from Valentine's spending.

Dow since 1898:

  • Valentine's Day:
    • Avg. loss of -0.003% (almost flat)
    • Up 51% of the time, when it gained an avg of 0.66%, down 49% when it fell an avg of -0.68%
    • Biggest gain of 2.05% in 2003
    • Biggest decline of -4.3% in 1933
  • 1 Week After:
    • Avg. loss of -0.05%
    • Up 51% of the time, when it gained an avg of 1.5%, down 49% when it fell an avg of -1.7%
    • Biggest gain of 6.93% in 1899
    • Biggest loss of -4.81 in 1898

S&P since 1928:

  • Valentine's Day:
    • Avg. loss of -0.13%
    • Up 41% of the time, when it gained an avg of 0.65%, down 56% when it fell an avg of -0.7%, and 3% unchanged in 1934 & 1944
    • Biggest gain of 2.14% in 2003
    • Biggest decline of -5.11% in 1933
  • 1 Week After:
    • Avg. loss of -0.30%
    • Up 46% of the time, when it gained an avg of 1.13%, down 54% when it fell an avg of -1.5%
    • Biggest gain of 4.13% in 1974
    • Biggest loss of -5.7% in 1933

NASDAQ Composite since 1972:

  • Valentine's Day:
    • Avg. gain of 0.16%
    • Up 64% of the time, when it gained an avg of 0.68%, down 36% when it fell an avg of -0.76%
    • Biggest gain of 2.14% in 2003
    • Biggest decline of -5.11% in 1933
  • 1 Week After:
    • Avg. loss of -0.30%
    • Up 46% of the time, when it gained an avg of 1.13%, down 54% when it fell an avg of -1.5%
    • Biggest gain of 2.6% in 2001
    • Biggest loss of -1.7% in 2008

Despite marginal average losses in the US major Indexes during Valentine's and a week later, here are some companies that may share the love on this special day.

1) Confectioners:

  • Hershey sells its famous Kisses which are a Valentine’s classic
  • Cadbury is the world’s largest confectioner by sales and is being bought by Kraft for $18.4 billion
  • Godiva was sold to Yildiz Holdings for $850M in Dec. 2007
  • Mars, Inc. the makers of M&M’s is privately held
  • Nestle SA is the world’s biggest food company
AP

2) Florists:

  • 1-800-FLOWERS.com
  • FTD Group

Perfume, Lingerie, and more

3) Perfume Manufacturers:

  • International Flavors and Fragrances Inc.
  • Parlux Fragrances Inc.
  • Inter Parfums Inc.
  • Elizabeth Arden Inc.
  • Estee Lauder Companies Inc.
  • Revlon Inc.

4) Specialty Retailers:

  • Teddy Bears
    • Build-A-Bear Workshop
    • Vermont Teddy Bear is privately held
  • Lingerie
    • Limited Brands Inc. - owner of Victoria’s Secret
    • Frederick’s of Hollywood
    • The PajamaGram Company was taken private by the Mustang Group in May 2005 for $6.50 per share.

Jewelery, Cards and More

5) Jewelers:

  • Tiffany’s
  • Blue Nile Inc.
  • Harry Winston
  • Zale Corp.
  • Ice.com is currently privately held with investments by Polaris Venture Partners and Ignition Partners.

6) Card makers:

  • American Greetings
  • CSS Industries

7) Restaurants

  • Morton’s Restaurant Group Inc.
  • Ruth’s Chris Steak House Inc.
  • Landry’s Restaurants
  • P.F. Chang’s
  • Darden Restaurants Inc.

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