Oil to Hit $100 in US Driving Season: Analyst
A recovering economy and tightening supply from oil refiners will push the price of crude up to $100 a barrel as the US driving season gets into full swing, John Kilduff, co-CIO of Round Earth Capital, told CNBC Tuesday.
"The move back above $80 will be before us in the next several days and we're going to continue higher… I think we're going to see $100 a barrel for crude oil here at some point during even the first half of the year," Kilduff said.
"It will be a drag and it will likely be temporary. It will probably coincide with the peak summer of gasoline demand here in the United States," he added.
- Watch the full interview with John Kilduff above.
Driving season traditionally starts with the Memorial Day holiday on the 31st of May and sees many Americans taking time off and driving to vacation destinations.
One of the key factors that will push the price of crude higher is constrained supply in terms of refining capacity around the world, according to Kilduff.
The US refining industry has been running at about 80 percent capacity over the last eight months in an attempt to drain global supplies and push the price of refined product higher, he said.
"As a result we're very vulnerable to any outages, or like we're seeing right now with the strike in France, that's going to spark I think this rally," Kilduff said.
Total workers remained on strike in France Wednesday, but are due to vote on whether to continue after the oil major pledged to backtrack on plans to shut plants.
Meanwhile, any improvement in the economy will backstop further price rises as dampened demand will recover, he said.
"There are signs out there that the global economy, US economy is picking up and that speaks to increasing energy demand," he said.
Investors can no longer assume that rises in the dollar will lead lower oil prices because the inverse relationship noted over the last year has broken down, according to Kilduff.