Evidently Christmas came very, very early for retailers this year – in February. According to the latest data consumers battled blizzards and long unemployment lines to keep spending at the mall.
In fact, U.S. retailers posted their best monthly sales performance since just before the recession started in 2007, as lean inventories meant they did not need to resort to steep discounts.
That, in turn, send the XRT to one year highs.
What’s the trade?
If you’re looking to establish a long position in retail, I’d look at Gap , counsels Guy Adami. I like this stock for the long-term.
I’m watching Williams Sonoma , Pier 1 and Target , counsels Pete Najarian. All of those stocks are showing strong margin improvement.
Retailers outperform when there’s an anticipation of higher interest rates, adds veteran trader Gary Kaminsky. I can’t tell you why but I’ve been at this a long time and it’s a trend worth noting.
I’d keep an eye on high end, counsels Deutsche economist Joe LaVorgna. The high end consumer appears to be coming back.
I’d check out the growth in Tiffany , says Guy Adami.
One thing investors should remember is that there’s a lot of short interest in some of these names, says Pete Najarian. I like The Buckle but the short interest is something like 35% and short interest in Zale’s is 50%.
TRADING THE GLOBE: EMERGING CONSUMER
If you need something more than a consumer comeback to get jazzed about retail, consider this: Some pundits are comparing the spending strength of a booming middle class in emerging markets to that of the United States -- back in the 1950s.
What’s the trade?
I like playing Brazil for its emerging middle class, counsels Tim Seymour. Check out CBD or Televisa .
And I’m also bullish broadly on the cellular companies such as Vivo ,MBT and ChinaMobile .
EAR TO THE WALL: TIVO'S
Tivo got a huge boost Thursday after a court decision over patents paved the way for a huge payment from rivals.
What's the trade?
Lazard has a $27 price target on this stock, says Pete Najarian.
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Trader disclosure: On March 4th, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (GS), (NUE), (C), (AGU); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (F), (CX); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (RIG); Finerman's Firm Owns (XBI); Najarian Owns (BAC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (F) Calls; Najarian Owns (PCX); Najarian Owns (PFE); Najarian Owns (TEX) Calls; Najarian Owns (TIVO) Call Spread; Karabell Owns (MTW), (JPM); Edwards Owns (GLD) For Clients; Edwards Owns (SPY) For Clients; Edwards Owns (QQQQ) For Clients; Edwards Owns (GS) For Clients; Edwards Owns (JPM) For Clients; Edwards Owns (WMT) For Clients; Edwards Owns (BKE) For Clients; Jon Najarian Owns (BAC), Is Short (BAC) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (C), Is Short (C) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (GS), Is Short (GS) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (JPM), Is Short (JPM) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (MS), Is Short (MS) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (TJX), Is Short (TJX) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (WFC), Is Short (WFC) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (WMT), Is Short (WMT) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (AKS) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (AMSC) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (CMC) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (ESRX) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (FST) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (JOYG) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (QCOM) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (TSL) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (RMBS)
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