All eyes will be on the health care sector this weekend as reform lands center stage.
Dems are expected to burn the candle at both ends with a GOP showdown looming on Sunday.
That’s right, Sunday.
Health care reform is expected to go up for a vote in the House on Sunday and according to our news partner, the Associated Press, as of Friday night Dems still did not have the 216 votes needed for it to pass.
That means every undecided lawmaker will receive personal attention from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House as President Obama all but puts his presidency at stake on the bills passage.
President Obama even delayed a trip to Indonesia and Australia to help ensure passage of the legislation; he even held a town hall meeting to whip up public support.
"The only question left is this: Are we going to let the special interests win once again, or are we going to make this vote a victory for the American people?" he said.
The health care reform program would affect every American and remake one-sixth of the U.S. economy. For the first time, Americans would be required to have health insurance. The United States is the only major industrialized democracy that does not have a universal health care system.
What must you know?
As he told us earlier in the week, Daniel Clifton of Strategas still doesn’t think the bill passes. “They’re still short 6 votes,” he tells the desk.
However, if it does pass he put together a list of the most likely winners and losers. It follows:
Our news partner, the Associate Press put together a comprehensive explanation of the bill as it stands now. Details follow
COST: $940 billion over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
HOW MANY COVERED: 32 million uninsured. Major coverage expansion begins in 2014. When fully phased in, 95 percent of eligible Americans would have coverage, compared with 83 percent today.
INSURANCE MANDATE: Almost everyone is required to be insured or else pay a fine. There is an exemption for low-income people. Mandate takes effect in 2014.
INSURANCE MARKET REFORMS: Major consumer safeguards take effect in 2014. Insurers prohibited from denying coverage to people with medical problems or charging them more. Higher premiums for women would be banned. Starting this year, insurers would be forbidden from placing lifetime dollar limits on policies and from denying coverage to children because of pre-existing medical problems. Parents would be able to keep older kids on their policies up to age 26. A new high-risk pool would offer coverage to uninsured people with medical problems until 2014, when the coverage expansion goes into high gear.
MEDICAID: Expands the federal-state Medicaid insurance program for the poor to cover people with incomes up to 133 percent of the federal poverty level, $29,327 a year for a family of four. Childless adults would be covered for the first time, starting in 2014. The federal government would pay 100 percent of the tab for covering newly eligible individuals through 2016. A special deal that would have given Nebraska 100 percent federal financing for newly eligible Medicaid recipients in perpetuity is eliminated. A different, one-time deal negotiated by Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu for her state, Louisiana, worth as much as $300 million, remains.
TAXES: Dramatically scales back a Senate-passed tax on high-cost insurance plans that was opposed by House Democrats and labor unions. The tax would be delayed until 2018, and the thresholds at which it is imposed would be $10,200 for individuals and $27,500 for families. To make up for the lost revenue, the bill applies an increased Medicare payroll tax to investment income as well as wages for individuals making more than $200,000, or married couples above $250,000. The tax on investment income would be 3.8 percent.
PRESCRIPTION DRUGS: Gradually closes the "doughnut hole" coverage gap in the Medicare prescription drug benefit that seniors fall into once they have spent $2,830. Seniors who hit the gap this year will receive a $250 rebate. Beginning in 2011, seniors in the gap receive a discount on brand name drugs, initially 50 percent off. When the gap is completely eliminated in 2020, seniors will still be responsible for 25 percent of the cost of their medications until Medicare's catastrophic coverage kicks in.
EMPLOYER RESPONSIBILITY: As in the Senate bill, businesses are not required to offer coverage. Instead, employers are hit with a fee if the government subsidizes their workers' coverage. The $2,000-per-employee fee would be assessed on the company's entire work force, minus an allowance. Companies with 50 or fewer workers are exempt from the requirement. Part-time workers are included in the calculations, counting two part-timers as one full-time worker.
SUBSIDIES: The proposal provides more generous tax credits for purchasing insurance than the original Senate bill did. The aid is available on a sliding scale for households making up to four times the federal poverty level, $88,200 for a family of four. Premiums for a family of four making $44,000 would be capped at around 6 percent of income.
HOW YOU CHOOSE YOUR HEALTH INSURANCE: Small businesses, the self-employed and the uninsured could pick a plan offered through new state-based purchasing pools called exchanges, opening for business in 2014. The exchanges would offer the same kind of purchasing power that employees of big companies benefit from. People working for medium-to-large firms would not see major changes. But if they lose their jobs or strike out on their own, they may be eligible for subsidized coverage through the exchange.
GOVERNMENT-RUN PLAN: No government-run insurance plan. People purchasing coverage through the new insurance exchanges would have the option of signing up for national plans overseen by the federal office that manages the health plans available to members of Congress. Those plans would be private, but one would have to be nonprofit.
ABORTION: The proposal keeps the abortion provision in the Senate bill. Abortion opponents disagree on whether restrictions on taxpayer funding go far enough. The bill tries to maintain a strict separation between taxpayer dollars and private premiums that would pay for abortion coverage. No health plan would be required to offer coverage for abortion. In plans that do cover abortion, policyholders would have to pay for it separately, and that money would have to be kept in a separate account from taxpayer money. States could ban abortion coverage in plans offered through the exchange. Exceptions would be made for cases of rape, incest and danger to the life of the mother.
GOP HEALTH CARE SUMMIT IDEAS: Following a bipartisan health care summit last month, Obama announced he was open to incorporating several Republican ideas into his legislation. But two of the principle ones - hiring investigators to pose as patients and search for fraud at hospitals and increasing spending for medical malpractice reform initiatives - did not make it into the legislation released Thursday. The legislation incorporates only one, an increase in payments to primary care physicians under Medicaid, an idea mentioned by Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa.
Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to email@example.com.
Trader disclosure: On March 19, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Grasso Owns (AAPL); Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE) ; Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY), (IYR), (MDY), (IJR); Finerman Owns (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Leaps; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred ; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (JPM); Finerman's Firm Owns (QCOM); Finerman's Firm OWns (RIG); Najarian Owns (AA) Calls; Najarian Owns (BAC) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (C) Calls; Najarian Owns (INTC) Calls; Najarian Owns (TEVA); Najarian Owns (UNH) Call Spread; Terranova Owns (QCOM), (TER); Terranova Is Short (CAL), (UAUA), (AMR), (GS)
GE Is The Parent Company Of CNBC
For Brian Kelly
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (GBPUSD)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (EURUSD)
Kanundrum Capital Is Short (RSX)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (GE)
Kanundrum Capital Owns US Dollar
Kanundrum Capital is Short (FCX)
Kanundrum Capital (AA)
Kanundrum Capital Owns (QCOM)
For Brian Stutland
Stutland Equities is Market Maker in (VIX)
Stutland Equities is Market Maker in (SPX)
Stutland is Short (VIX)
Stutland is Short (GLD)
For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel & Co. Inc. And Its Partners Are Short (QQQQ)
CNBC.com with wires