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Halftime Report: Interpreting Latest Market ‘Tell’

The S&P stalled on Thursday leaving investors desperate for a market ‘tell’.

Many spent the session grappling with almost conflicting economic data; jobless claims rose unexpectedly and new worries about Greece surfaced suggesting weakness. However retailers reported the best same store sales data ever.

Specifically, sales at stores open at least a year rose 9.1 percent in March, the largest monthly jump since Thomson Reuters began tracking results in 2000. More than 90 percent of 28 retailers tracked beat expectations.

What should you make of it?

One market 'tell' may center around volume. The Fast Money traders say we are seeing bigger volume on down days then we are on up days.

How should you trade it?

Strategy Session with the Fast Money Traders

The volume suggests to me many investors don’t believe in this rally but I’m in the minority, says Steve Grasso of Stuart Frankel. I think the market could go higher because so many people think it’s going lower. As long as the market holds above 1150 I’m a buyer of dips. I think we could hit 1200 as soon as next week. We may even be heading to 1300.

Also, technical levels have not been violated, says Mike Gurka of Neural. From what I can see, investors are buying the dips. I see no problem with getting the S&P above 1200 other than psychological resistance. My target for the top is 1257.

But markets have important intermediate advances and then they pullback, adds Carter Worth of Oppenheimer. The advance we’ve enjoyed from the February 5th low is reaching the outer limits of how far you can go and how steep you can go before there’s profit taking.

I expect we see resolution to this question next week, says Jon Najarian. Earnings season will likely be a big catalyst. Spectacular news like we got from the retailers makes me worried, Najarian adds . Yes, it’s great news but the retailers have already run up ahead of it. That suggests we need absolutely exceptional results during earnings season or we pull back.

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FEARS MOUNTING GREEK BAILOUT COULD FALL APART...

Fears continue to mount that the Greece bailout is falling apart with that nation’s 10-year bond rising to nearly 7.6%. However the market shrugged off the news and the euro moved higher

What’s the trade?

I think the rebound in the euro is short covering, says Brian Kelly. But I would not short Europe’s banks right now. If you’re aggressive get long Bank of Greece on a short covering rally.

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KEY FINANCIALS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM

For the second day in a row both Goldman and Morgan Stanley traded higher in a tough tape.

Why the interest in these two names?

It seems to me investors are looking for names that have underperformed and both GS and MS have underperformed lately, explains Jon Najarian.

Morgan reports April 20th and I’m hearing investors are expecting a surprise to the upside, adds Steve Grasso.

I think the two stocks mentioned above are fairly valued and dead money, counters Carter Worth.

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EAR TO THE WALL: OSHKOSH

Jon Najarian has spotted unusual options action in OshKosh .

I’m seeing a large volume of the May 40 and May 45 calls trading, says Najarian. I take that to mean the stock could make a sharp move higher, perhaps due to takeover chatter.

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TRADE TO GO: TERNIUM (TX)

Ternium is a steel company has been "a great benefactor of the glut for yield out of the emerging market space", says Mike Gurka. Put it on your radar.


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Trader disclosure: On Apr 8, 2010, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Jon Najarian Owns (AAPL) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (AMZN) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (AMR) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (BAC) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (C) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (F), Is Short (F) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (GS), Is Short (GS) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (HPQ), Is Short (HPQ) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (IGT) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (JPM) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (JCG), Is Short (JCG) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (LVS), Is Short (LVS) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (MCD), Is Short (MCD) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (MS) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (RIMM), Is Short (RIMM) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (WMT) Calls, Is Short (WMT); Jon Najarian Owns (WFC) Preferred; Jon Najarian Owns (WYNN), Is Short (WYNN) Calls; Jon Najarian Owns (YHOO) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (AMR) Call Spreads; Jon Najarian Owns (HOTT); Jon Najarian Owns (CSCO), Is Short (CSCO) Calls; Terranova Owns (AXP), (EOG), (SWN), (FCX), (GLD), (POT), (TER), (YHOO); Terranova Is Short (XLY), (LCC), (FDX); Grasso Owns (ASTM), Grasso Owns (ABK),Grasso Owns (AAPL), Grasso Owns (BAC), Grasso Owns (BGP), Grasso Owns (C), Grasso Owns (CVGI), Grasso Owns (COST), Grasso Owns (JPM), Grasso Owns (NEM), Grasso Owns (PRST), Grasso Owns (WMT), Grasso Owns (PFE), Grasso Owns (BA). Grasso Owns (T); Edwards Owns (TM); Edwards Owns (UUP); Stutland Owns (MSFT); Stutland Equities Is A Market Maker In VIX And SPX Options; Kelly Owns (FXE) Puts; Cortes Owns (IAI), (MS), (GS); Cortes Is Short S&P Futures

For Joe Terranova
Terranova Works For (VRTS)
Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)

For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (CVGI)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (MERC)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (NWS.A)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (NXST)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (PDE)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (TLM)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Are Short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Are Short (CL)
Stuart Frankel And Its Partners Are Short (AAPL)

For Patty Edwards
Edwards Owns (AAPL) For Clients
Edwards Owns (AMZN) For Clients
Edwards Owns (ANF) For Clients
Edwards Owns (BKE) For Clients
Edwards Owns (F) For Clients
Edwards Owns (GS) For Clients
Edwards Owns (GLD) For Clients
Edwards Owns (GOOG) For Clients
Edwards Owns (HPQ) For Clients
Edwards Owns (INTC) For Clients
Edwards Owns (JCG) For Clients
Edwards Owns (JPM) For Clients
Edwards Owns (JWN) For Clients
Edwards Owns (MCD) For Clients
Edwards Owns (MS) For Clients
Edwards Owns (MSFT) For Clients
Edwards Owns (NOK) For Clients
Edwards Owns (ORCL) For Clients
Edwards Owns (SPY) For Clients
Edwards Owns (TM) For Clients
Edwards Owns (WMT) For Clients
Edwards Owns (WFC) For Clients
Edwards Owns (YHOO) For Clients

For Athony Scaramucci
Skybridge Is Short (WMT)
Skybridge Is Short (GPS)
Skybridge Is Short (KSS)
Skybridge Is Short (LTD)
Skybridge Is Short (TIF)
Skybridge Is Short (RL)
Skybridge Is Short (JAS)
Skybridge Is Short (URBN)
Skybridge Is Short (JCG)
Skybridge Owns (INTC)
Scaramucci Owns (INTC)

For Hilary Kramer
A&G Capital Owns (GEOY)

For Luciano Siracusano
Siracusano Is Chief Investment Strategist Of WisdomTree And Is An Investor In WisdomTree ETFs


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Symbol
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S&P 500
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GS
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MS
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ETE
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OSK
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TX
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