BP Shares Not Struggling Historically: Charts
While shares of BP have tumbled since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the shares of the company aren't much worse off than other major shares in London, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.
"Obviously in the short term it's just fallen more than 50 percent, which is really horrendously bad," Griffiths said.
But "if you look at the charts from the highs in the year 2000, which is an important high for most stocks, it's no more off its highs than the current largest company in the market, which is HSBC."
In an internal document, BP estimates that the worst-case scenario rate for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill could be about 100,000 barrels of oil per day. The company said Monday that the cost of its response so far was $2 billion.
In London, BP shares were down. They closed slightly higher in New York Friday.
A slump of more than 50 percent would mean the stock is in a structural downward trend, so "it's pretty vital we don't make new lows from here."
Looking to the FTSE-100, the index is in a mid-summer rally that will likely last another four to five weeks, Griffiths said. The index could recoup a quarter to half of its recent losses in that time, he added.
Meanwhile, the recent rally in the euro against the dollar is mainly bears closing out short positions, but the currency is still in a downward trend, Griffiths said.
The euro could rise to $1.30 and up to $1.33 before the selling resumes, he added.
ING Bank analysts said Monday that the single European currency could be affected by talk of creating a "two-tier" euro zone.