Speaking anecdotally, we think it is reasonable to assume that this will wind up being one of the hottest summers on record. And, by “record” we mean one of the hottest of the last 100 years or so in which man has kept (somewhat) reliable records. As far as temperatures go in the first 4,499,999,900 years of the Earth’s estimated existence, it’s anyone’s guess… just ask those peer reviewed boys in East Anglia.
Of course the spike in temperatures this summer, just like the plunge in temperatures last winter, has played havoc in the natural gas market. And, by “havoc” we mean for anyone who has tried buying gas based on the bullish weather only to then watch their money evaporate right in front of their eyes.
Buying gas seems reasonable, weather demand is terrific… and injections through stage 2 (of 3) of this refill season have been exceptionally low.
Furthermore, the contango (or discount) on the cross-seasonal Nymex timespread between the October and November contracts has been deviating from the historical path.