U.S. equity markets are relatively quiet ahead of Thanksgiving, but will there be some stock cheer the week after Black Friday and for the rest of the holiday season?
Historically and on average, stocks have been up on the week after Thanksgiving Day and continued to uptrend from Thanksgiving to Christmas Day.
The NASDAQ Composite has averaged best of the major indices for the period of Thanksgiving Day through Christmas, with an average gain of 1.1% and up 62% of the time, while the Dow and S&P have average gains of 0.54% and 0.57% for the same period.
Here is a look at the major indices on Black Friday, the short-Thanksgiving week, one-week after Thanksgiving and until Christmas.
Dow since 1900
Black Friday:
- Average gain of 0.27%, Up 65% of the time (Biggest gain of 4.07% in 1937 & Largest Drop in 1919 down -3.52%)
- Rose 7 of the last 10 Black Fridays
Short Thanksgiving Week:
- Average gain of 0.45%, Up 60% of the time (Biggest gain of 9.73% in 2008 & Largest Drop 1932 down -6.64%)
- Rose 6 of the last 10 short-Thanksgiving Weeks
1 Week after Thanksgiving Day:
- Average gain of 0.2%, Up 53% of the time (Biggest gain of 10.12% in 1937 & Largest Drop in 1987 down -8.75%)
- Declined 6 of the last 10
Thanksgiving Day to Christmas:
- Average gain of 0.54 %, Up 62% of the time (Biggest gain of 10.37% in 1971 & Largest Drop in 1931 down -19.5%)
- Rose 7 of the last 10 periods from Thanksgiving to Christmas Day
S&P since 1928:
Black Friday:
- Average gain of 0.27%, Up 68% of the time (Biggest gain of 4.92% in 1937 & Largest Drop in 1931 down -2.31%)
- Rose 6 of the last 10 Black Fridays
Short Thanksgiving Week:
- Avg. gain of 0.32%, Up 59% of the time (Biggest gain of 12.03% in 2008 & Largest Drop 1931 down -5.48%)
- Rose 7 of the last 10 short-Thanksgiving Weeks
1 Week after Thanksgiving Day:
- Average gain of ~0.1%, Down 51% of the time (Biggest gain of 10.03% in 1937 & Largest Drop in 1987 down -7.74%)
- Declined 6 of the last 10
Thanksgiving Day to Christmas:
- Average gain of 0.57 %, Up 58% of the time (Biggest gain of 11.8% in 1971 & Largest Drop in 1931 down -16.5%)
- Rose 7 of the last 10 periods from Thanksgiving to Christmas Day
NASDAQ Composite since 1971:
Black Friday:
- Average gain of 0.52%, Up 82% of the time (Biggest gain of 5.4% in 2000 & Largest Drop in 2009 down -1.73%)
- Rose 6 of the last 10 Black Fridays
Short Thanksgiving Week:
- Average gain of 0.71%, Up 67% of the time (Biggest gain of 10.92% in 2008 & Largest Drop 2000 down -4.06%)
- Rose 7 of the last 10 short-Thanksgiving Weeks
1 Week after Thanksgiving Day:
- Average gain of ~0.2%, Up 64% of the time (Biggest gain of 5.7% in 1971 & Largest Drop in 1974 down -6.2%)
- Rose 5 of the last 10
Thanksgiving Day to Christmas:
- Average gain of 1.1%, Up 62% of the time (Biggest gain of 16.05% in 1999 & Largest Drop in 1973 down -8.9%)
- Rose 5 of the last 10 periods from Thanksgiving to Christmas Day
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