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Halftime: Who Will Be Black Friday Winners?

Wednesday, 24 Nov 2010 | 1:08 PM ET

Look over a trader’s shoulder on Wednesday and you're apt to see a split computer screen – one side for the markets and the other for Black Friday sales.

From Walmart to Nordstrom retailers are getting ready for as many as 138 million shoppers expected to deluge stores between now and Sunday, according to the National Retail Federation.

Investors are already placing their bets with at least 4 big names trading at or near all time highs. They follow:

Retail Stocks at All-Time Highs
Tiffany
Amazon
Coach
Nike

It’s widely believed that shoppers will be more willing to open their wallets this holiday season than in year’s past. Adding to the tailwinds, the recent downturn forced retailers to reduce excess inventories and operate more profitably.

Who will be the big winners? How should you play it?

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The "Fast Money" traders share their market insight and midday trading advice.

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I’m looking for Amazon to be the big winner this holiday as well as Apple, says Joe Terranova. I truly believe Apple gadgets will be the must-give gifts this holiday season.

And I’m also bullish Nike and Foot Locker. The athletic apparel space has been performing well; also Americans like to workout and the affluent consumer drives this space.

I’d play it longNordstrom , adds Stephen Weiss author of The Billion Dollar Mistake. I agree -- companies that cater to the high-end customer willl likely do better.

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And I also like FedEx, he adds. FedEx had a great quarter and typically it’s correlated to Amazon. FedEx economists are looking for a 3% increase in retail sales but I'm looking for a 5% increase; I think that surprises everybody.

I’m long the RTH , says Brian Kelly. I’m trying to take advantage of what looks like a better environment for retail. But it’s a trade. I plan to take off the position on either Friday or Monday.

I’m long Tiffany , Amazon and Guess , reveals Jon Najarian. I suspect people have a little more money and think they will spend some of it on holiday shopping.


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OVERSEAS WOES

Elsewhere in the market, the traders are watching the extra yield that the market is demanding to finance the Spanish government over benchmark Germany.

James Chappel at Olive Tree securities in London is telling investors that time and time again - for any country - a gap of 4% is 'the' point of no return.

”Spain is the contagion Europe can 'not' afford. It's arguably why the EU spent two weeks forcing Ireland to where it is today,” says CNBC’s Simon Hobbs.

How should you trade?

I think we’re quickly going to the point of ‘no return,” agrees Brian Kelly. I think we’re starting to witness the internal breakup of the eurozone. I wouldn’t touch a euro-zone bank and I’d also short the euro.

Also, Germany wants to take the stimulus out of the European system, adds Joe Terranova. I think that drives the direction of both the euro and European equities.

On a related note, I expect the US dollar to appreciate from here, adds Stephen Weiss. But that’s a bet on an improving economy here in the US.


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Trader disclosure: On November 24, 2010, following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Joe Terranova Owns (UPL), (C), (PEP), (VRTS), (OXY), (GS), (FCX), (IBM), (CRM), (MCD), (NKE) and (AAPL). Joe Terranova Owns (CRM) Puts. Joe Terranova Owns (FCX) Puts. Stephen Weiss Owns (HPQ), (UAL), (UUP), (HK), (DVN), (COP), (TSN), (JWN) and (FDX); Jon Najarian Owns (HPQ), Is Short (HPQ) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (ORCL), Is Short (ORCL) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (YHOO), Is Short (YHOO) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (GS), Is Short (GS) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (CAT), Is Short (CAT) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (TIF), Is Short (TIF) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (AMZN), Is Short (AMZN) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (GES), Is Short (GES) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (CLF) Calls. Jon Najarian Owns (SLE) Calls.

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BRIAN KELLY
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (GLD)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (GDXJ)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (XLK)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (SMH)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (RTH)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (SLV)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (JJG)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (POT)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (TIP)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (IEF)

JOE TERRANOVA
Terranova is chief market strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD.
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (ABAX)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (ALK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (AMKR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CMS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CSC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (CSVI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (FCFS)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (MGRC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (NRCI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLF)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (SOA)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (WMB)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners own more than 1% of (DRYS)

DENNIS GARTMAN
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Euro, Long Gold
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Are Short Euro, Long Australian Dollar
Funds Managed By Dennis Gartman Own (RJA)





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