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Is China About to Slaughter This Bull?

Wall Street is eagerly awaiting China's consumer price inflation, which is due to be published on Saturday. If the number is too high, China may decide to raise interest rates as a way of fighting inflation. But higher rates could ruin the commodities trade and ripple through the S&P 500 index.

Is China about to slaughter this bull?

David Riedel of Riedel Research thinks you have every reason to worry. Even though China's central bank raised reserve requirements for the second time this week, he thinks they'll continue with a more aggressive form of monetary tightening by raising rates.

"I think you could see 50 basis points this time," said Riedel, an emerging markets expert. "I think there's an 80 percent chance that it happens."

Riedel draws that conclusion because China moved the announcement forward to this weekend, instead of Monday, which he takes to mean Beijing wants the market to have time to digest an interest rate hike.

Dennis Gartman, on the other hand, doesn't think this weekend will be nearly so eventful.

Gartman doesn't think China will raise rates. He said its decision to raise reserve requirements as a way of mopping up excess cash in the economy and also rein in inflation will likely be enough for them. China's central bank tends to prefer this milder form of monetary tightening over raising interest rates, he noted.

"A reserve requirement increase is like a 2X4 to the forehead of a recalcitrant mule," Gartman said with a wink. In other words it gets the job done.

That analogy may be a little confusing but Gartman couldn't be more clear about his expectations over the weekend.

"I don't think they're going to do anything to move interest rates up," he said.

With more than 30 years of experience as a currency and commodities trader, Gartman is a "Fast Money" contributor and publisher of the widely read "The Gartman Letter."

Watch the video to see the full conversation with Gartman.

What's the Trade?

If you agree with the prediction that rates will be higher by Monday, Riedel suggests short the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index exchange-traded fund. The ETF is 45 percent financials and 20 percent energy, which are two sectors he thinks will be "hit hard."

It's worth noting Riedel isn't entirely bearish on China, though. That's because he thinks this move will only slow growth, not stop it. He suggest long industrial stocks, as well as different Hong Kong property names. He's also long durable good names, including Lihua International.

"People love buying durable goods when inflation is around the corner, so there some good ways to play it long," Riedel said. "But absolutely run, don't walk, from financials."

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Trader disclosure: On December 10, 2010, following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Finerman's firm is short (IJR); Finerman's firm is short (SPY); Finerman's firm is short (IWM); Finerman's firm is short (MDY); Finerman's firm is long S&P puts; Finerman's firm is long Russell 2000 puts; Finerman Owns (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Owns (ARO); Finerman Owns (BAC); Finerman Owns (JPM); Finerman's Firm Owns (JPM) Leaps; Finerman's Firm Owns (KFT); Finerman's Firm Owns (THC) Calls; Jon Najarian owns (BBT) call spreads; Jon Najarian owns (BAC) call spreads; Jon Najarian owns (DF); Jon Najarian owns (DRYS), is short (DRYS) calls; Jon Najarian owns (GS) call spreads; Jon Najarian owns (GT), is short (GT) calls; Jon Najarian Owns (SNDK); Terranova owns (C), (VRTS), (UPL), (PEP), (NKE), (GS), (OXY)

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