The barrage of reports from strategists on what investors should expect in 2011 has finally subsided and now, Birinyi Associates has issued a report on the reports. In a brief paper called, “Themes and Stocks for 2011” Birinyi analysts have waded through the verbiage of Wall Street’s strategists and came away with a few nuggets of note.
Among a group of 10 firms (Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, RBC, S&P, UBS) 30 different lists talking about nearly 1,000 stocks— nine names are the most frequently touted: Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, Cisco, Occidental Petroleum, Aflac, Baxter, IBM, Pepsico, and Qualcomm. Of the nine stocks, only IBM is also recommended by Birinyi Associates in its Growth Portfolio.
The most frequently cited theme: equities are the most attractive asset class.
Most conflicted theme was clearly large-cap vs. small cap stocks.
Birinyi Associates also took a look at how well the same group of 10 did in 2010. Of the 7 top themes noted last year, strategists were winners in 5 categories and lost just 2.
Recommendations they got right:
- Equities over Fixed Income
- “Overweight” Emerging Markets
- Fed Target Rate Unchanged
- Cyclical Sectors Outperform
- “Higher Quality” Important
Recommendations they got wrong:
- U.S. Equities to Peak in 1H
- Large Caps to Outperform
Companies mentioned in this post
Procter & Gamble
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
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