Gross leverage is back to nearly 2-to-1 for U.S. funds, compared to the sub 1.5 leverage ratio seen at the bottom, according to UBS data. Keep in mind that this is the average across the board, so many funds could be back to the high-flying days of 20-to-1 and greater.
The increased leverage, along with the formation of new funds by former traders at banks, will spur hedge fund assets to leapfrog past pre-Lehman levels and further enlarge the industry’s prominence on Wall Street and tighten its grip on daily trading in markets.
Oddly, hedge funds are garnering more assets even after their performance trailed the market again last year. Returns averaged just 10.5 percent, according to UBS, compared to a 13 percent return for the S&P 500 in 2010. To be sure, some very bad performing hedge funds skew this average and investors figure that with leverage back and a more stable world, hedge funds are once again the best place to get the best return, even net their lofty fees.
“The hedge fund industry growth will accelerate with assets setting a new peak by the end of 2011, passing the $2 trillion mark,” stated UBS. Funds focused on macro themes have already recouped their assets lost during the financial crisis, while funds focused on stock picking still have a ways to go, according to the report.
“Macro still king as long as quantitative easing No. 3 is a possibility, so I would assume that macro will have another good asset gathering year in 2011,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at BNY ConvergEx. Meanwhile, a high correlation between individuals stocks has hurt long/short funds, according to Colas.
While it may be good for market momentum in the near term that hedge funds are increasing their firing power and that the higher leverage is no longer contained in banks systematically important to the financial system, it doesn’t necessarily mean the bull market is here to stay. This pre-Lehman leverage could add fuel to any correction or bear market that may come about because of the many risks that still lie ahead.
“I've seen funds moving up their volumes to make up for the smaller opportunities presented” in this low volatility environment, said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster and a ‘Fast Money’ trader. “When the market moves, which we all believe it will eventually, those new to the increased size of their book may find the leverage can cut both ways.”
* For the best market insight, catch 'Fast Money' each night at 5pm ET, and the ‘Halftime Report’ each afternoon at 12:30 ET on CNBC.
______________________________________________________
Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! If you'd prefer to make a comment, but not have it published on our Web site, send your message to fastmoney@cnbc.com.
Trader disclosure: On January 12, 2010, following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Terranova owns (GM); Terranova owns (C); Terranova owns (VRTS); Terranova owns (UPL); Terranova owns (PEP); Terranova owns (OXY); Terranova owns (GS); Terranova owns (LTD); Terranova owns (CNQ); Terranova owns (PVH); Terranova owns (CVI); Terranova owns (GLD) puts; Adami owns (AGU); Adami owns (C); Adami owns (BTU); Adami owns (GS); Adami owns (INTC); Adami owns (MSFT); Adami owns (NUE); Adami's wife works at (MRK); Finerman's firm is short (MDY); Finerman's firm is short (SPY); Finerman's firm is short (IWM); Finerman's firm is long S&P puts; Finerman's firm is long Russell 2000 puts; Finerman owns (AAPL); Finerman owns (BAC); Finerman's firm owns (BBY); Finerman owns (BP); Finerman's firm owns (BP); Finerman's owns (GOOG); Finerman owns (HPQ); Finerman's firm owns (HPQ); Finerman's firm owns (IBM); Finerman owns (JPM) and (JPM) leaps; Finerman's firm owns (JPM) and (JPM) leaps; Finerman owns (MSFT); Finerman's firm owns (MSFT); Finerman's firm owns (TGT); Finerman's firm owns (WMT)
For Joe Terranova
Terranova is Chief Market Strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABAX)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (AMKR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CCG)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CSVI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (FCFS)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (KRC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (LPHI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (NCRI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)
For Brian Kelly
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (FCX)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (GDXJ) straddles
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (GLD)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (TBT)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (MON)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (IPI)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (ANDE)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Own (USD)
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Are Short The Euro
Accounts Managed By Kanundrum Capital Are Short The Yen
For Joshua Brown
Brown owns (AAPL)
Brown owns (AAPL) for clients
Brown owns (AMZN) for clients
Brown owns (BAC)
Brown owns (BAC) for clients
Brown owns (BP) for clients
Brown owns (C)
Brown owns (C) for clients
Brown owns (DBA)
Brown owns (DBA) for clients
Brown owns (DIS) for clients
Brown owns (GE) for clients
Brown owns (GS) for clients
Brown owns (GLD)
Brown owns (GLD) for clients
Brown owns (GOOG) for clients
Brown owns (IWM) for clients
Brown owns (JNJ) for clients
Brown owns (JPM)
Brown owns (JPM) for clients
Brown owns (MOO)
Brown owns (MOO) for clients
Brown owns (MOS)
Brown owns (MOS) for clients
Brown owns (MSFT)
Brown owns (MSFT) for clients
Brown owns (POT)
Brown owns (QCOM)
Brown owns (QCOM) for clients
Brown owns (SBNY)
Brown owns (VZ)
Brown owns (VZ) for clients
Brown owns (WFC)
Brown owns (WFC) for clients
Brown owns (XOM) for clients
For Anthony Scaramucci
Scaramucci and Skybridge Capital Own (GS)
For Dennis Gartman
Dennis Gartman is long March KC Wheat
Dennis Gartman is long soybeans
Dennis Gartman is short the Yen
Dennis Gartman is long the Canadian Dollar
Dennis Gartman is long the Aussie Ddcollar
Dennis Gartman is long gold, short sterling
Dennis Gartman is short the Euro
For Steve Cortes
Cortes is long U.S. Treasuries
For Mike Khouw
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co is a market maker in (GOOG), (AAPL), (IBM)
For Brian Kelly Fast Fire SOT
No disclosures
GE is the parent company of CNBC
NBC Universal is the parent company of CNBC