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Stock 'Party to Go on For Long Time': Laszlo Birinyi

Tuesday, 25 Jan 2011 | 4:23 PM ET

A thorough analysis of historical bull runs points to a long-term bull market ahead, well-known money manager Laszlo Birinyi told CNBC Tuesday.

"We find that looking at the historical pattern of the markets can be a very useful exercise," Birinyi said. "We're fairly comfortable that the party is going to go on for a long time."

The money manager, who has previously pegged the S&P 500 at 2854 by 2013, also said he believes charting the history of rallies is more useful in market analysis than heavy focus on global economics or fundamentals.

"When you have an 80 percent move off the bottom as we did ... it always has resulted in a long-term market because quite frankly so many people miss so much of it and they have to try and catch up," Biryini said.

The Long-Term Bull Case
Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates, tells CNBC he still expects a long-term secular bull market and shares his five favorite stock picks.

He noted that the recent rally has signified the "second" stage of a long-term bull market; the market moved higher after this comment, Dave Rovelli, managing director of equity trading at Canaccord Genuity, told CNBC.

Among Biryini's top picks right now are retailer Polo Ralph Lauren and discount travel site Priceline.com , though "the most interesting stock" is luxury retailer Hermes .

"It's unique in the fact that the stock has done very well, and yet absolutely nobody in the world has actually recommended it and very few people own it," he said. "It's in the midst of a merger-takeover-defense play or whatever, which I think becomes a win-win for investors once it's finally settled."

Asked if anything could shake his bullish stance, Birinyi said the worst-case scenario he envisions is simply an "abbreviated" bull market.

"People should stay the course, and there is going to be shakeouts and there are going to be detours, but the market is fine," he said.

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S&P 500
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RMS
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The Priceline Group
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