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Commentary: What Saudi Spillover?

Oil traders fearing Saudi spillover should have been with me tonight trying to get back to my hotel after dinner in Riyadh.

Saudi youth wave their national flag as they celebrate the return of King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
Fayez Noureldine | AFP | Getty Images
Saudi youth wave their national flag as they celebrate the return of King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

A trip that should be 10 minutes took over an hour as we passed through scenes reminiscient of a world cup football victory.

The main street of Olaya, Riyadh's financial district, and the streets around are jammed with cars and people celebrating, honking horns, cheering.

Everyone is waving green flags and pictures of King Abdullah. When I ask a group of youths why they are so happy, they say "because our King has come home." They seem genuinely joyous.

The fact most of these people are young is very telling. There may be an unemployment rate of 39 percent for people between the ages of 15-24, but there appears to be no shortage of love for the king.

Photo: CNBC

If these scenes are being repeated across the country, and I was trading oil right now, I would be wondering when to short.

The scenes I have witnessed here are totally incompatible with oil traders' fears of a Saudi spillover. The idea of regime change seems just about the last thing the youth of Riyadh want.

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