Correction in Commodities Likely Shortlived: Experts
The commodities bull run fueled in recent years by China's breakneck economic growth may be close to an end, according to one expert. But others feel a correction will only be short-lived.
Although the latest evidence showed that China logged its first quarterly trade deficit in seven years due to surging commodities prices, the volume of imported commodities have fallen, noted Andrew Freris, Senior Investment Strategist, Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management.
"I'm not interested in prices. I'm interested in the number of tons of soybeans, of oil and of copper they are importing and they are decelerating very, very fast," he told CNBC.
Case in point: China imported 304,299 tons of copper in March according to customs data issued on Sunday, a 33 percent decline from a year ago.
It is no surprise that China is now importing less in terms of commodities as its economic growth has slowed to 9 percent from 11 percent a year ago, explained Freris. (Watch video here.)
However, not everyone expects the commodity bull run to come to an end. Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University told CNBC that the commodities rally can last through 2011 because of strong, sustained growth in emerging markets.
"I certainly think it can continue but it does feel to me like some of them are above the trend," said Rogoff. (Watch video here.)
Investors are growing more concerned about a pullback in commodity prices, especially oil, after Goldman Sachs issued a note, late Monday, which recommended investors take profits before oil and other markets reverse in the near term. But the bank remains positive on crude over the 12-month period.
That view was mirrored by John Licata, Chief Commodity Strategist at Blue Phoenix, who told CNBC that he expects the correction in the oil market to be short-lived.
"(Oil prices are) going to be supported in the low $100 range mainly because we are getting extremely close to that summer driving season, which is only about a month away and hurricane season which starts on June 1," Licata explained. (Watch video here.)