High Hopes — And Hurdles — For Hydrogen Cars

“I’m not counting on this for retirement,” he says. “I’m just as happy if technology comes up with something different to eliminate the country’s dependence on foreign oil. Until that comes along, I think hydrogen makes the most sense. Instead of importing a billion dollars worth of oil a day, the United States could export the equivalent in hydrogen technology.”

Automakers say they're puzzled why the Obama administration is picking winners and losers when they believe all options need to be on the table if the country wants to be a leader in clean technology.

Oliver Hazimeh, head of the global e-mobility practice at consulting firm PRTM, says electric cars will probably cost less than $35,000 by 2015, while hydrogen-powered cars might have a price tag of $50,000 or more.

“Commercialization readiness is not the same as tech readiness,” he says. “For electric cars, the time horizon is much more visible.”

By 2020, he expects electric plug-in cars to account for 10 percent of car sales and 2 percent to 2.5 percent of all cars on the road.

Hydrogen-fueled vehicles, meanwhile, would probably only get to a half-percent of car sales, but demand could get a boost starting in 2020, particularly with significant technological breakthroughs, he says.

Automakers and industry observers say the road has room for both technologies, but that hydrogen-powered cars offer some key advantages, including speedy refueling times, as well as the ability to go longer distances and power SUV-sized vehicles.

John DeCicco, a faculty fellow at the University of Michigan’s Energy Institute, isn’t optimistic that sales for either type of vehicle will take off.

“I don’t think there’s a way to short circuit this other than legislation that sets a legal limit on carbon emissions,” he says. “There has to be a consequence. Then automakers and oil companies will figure it out.”