If you’re watching developments in Greece, Italy, Portugal or the other PIIGS of Europe, you may be distracted from the real story.
According to strategic investor Dennis Gartman, most investors are betting which of the troubled nations gets kicked out of the EU first.
But he says, don’t be surprised if Germany just packs its bags and walks away. “I think what ends up happening is that Germany says we’re out. We’ve had enough.”
Gartman’s thesis is quite simple. He thinks Germany is tired of paying everybody’s bills.
”They had to spend billions 20 years ago to bring their Eastern neighbors back into the fold. And now they have to pay for the Italians, the Greeks and everyone else. I think they’re getting very upset with this.”
Although Dennis Gartman’s forecast may sound far-fetched, it’s not the first time the idea landed on the table. In December 2010 – somebody else made a similar remark – German chancellor Angela Merkel.
Although she wasn’t addressing exactly the same circumstances her comments are still quite relevant.
"If this is the sort of club the euro is becoming, perhaps Germany should leave," Merkel said, according to Britain’s The Guardian, at an EU summit dinner in Brussels.
In all fairness Merkel was pushing to re-open the Lisbon treaty and establish some new rules governing bailouts, but nonetheless, her comments were hardly sugar coated.
And if you watch Fast Money regularly you know that for quite a while now Gartman has been skeptical of the EU’s ability to survive.
Back in November 2010, he grabbed headlines by forecasting the demise of the euro with the 'reasonably viable' north and "ill managed' south splitting into two.
”Have the fundamental issues facing Europe – the philosophical problems, the productivity problems, the problems with the banks – have those problems gone away? Not at all.”
That doesn't mean Germany is out of the EU this week. Gartman doesn't even think it happens this year.
“Is it going to happen Tuesday, No! But I do think it happens in the next 2 to 3 years. The philosophical troubles facing Europe are only going to get worse and worse.”
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Trader disclosure: On May 23, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Terranova owns (XOM); Terranova owns (KSS); Terranova owns (CVI); Terranova owns (OXY); Terranova owns (TM); Terranova owns (BJ); Terranova owns (DIS); Terranova owns (PFE); Terranova owns (V); Terranova owns (HPQ); Terranova owns (FLX); Terranova owns (JPM); Terranova owns (MCD); Terranova owns (PEP); Terranova owns (VRTS); Terranova is short (DELL); Weiss owns (DRR); Weiss owns (UUP); Weiss owns (MRK); Weiss owns (DE); Weiss owns (BRCM); Weiss owns (AKAM); Weiss owns (KO); Weiss owns (ETP); Weiss owns (NS); Weiss owns (COP); Weiss owns DVN); Weiss owns (HK); Weiss owns (NAV); Weiss owns (TEVA); Weiss owns (TWM); Weiss owns (QCOM); Weiss owns (MDRX); Weiss owns (VZ); Weiss owns (HAIN); Weiss owns (MSFT); Weiss is short (X); Weiss is short ( AKS); Weiss is short (SHAW); Finerman and Finerman's firm own (AAPL); Finerman and Finerman's firm own (BP); Finerman and Finerman's Firm own (CMI); Finerman's Firm owns (IBM); Finerman owns (C); FInerman owns (JPM); Finerman's Firm owns (JPM) leaps and (JPM); Finerman's Firm owns (TGT); Finerman owns (UNG); Finerman's Firm is short (IWM), (MDY), (SPY); FInermans firm is long S&P Puts, Russell 2000 Puts; Adami owns (AGU); Adami owns (C); Adami owns (GS); Adami owns (MSFT); Adami owns (NUE); Adami owns (BTU)
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