The bull market has topped out, Scott O’Neil, President of MarketSmith and Portfolio Manager of O’Neil Data Systems, told the “Fast Money” traders Wednesday.
“The signs have been appearing since February,” he said.
The formula he used to make his determination is the same one he used to call the 2000 and 2007 tops before the market crashed.
O’Neil focused on a handful of key points to make the call. First, he looked at the distribution in the market, which is basically a gauge on institutional activity.
“There’s too much selling in the market,” he believes. “So, you’re in a small boat and too much water is coming on, and at some point it swamps it and the boat sinks.”
He also watched leading stocks. 50 percent of those stocks have already topped, he said,
Additionally, he's spotted rotation into relatively defensive areas of the market such as medical, foods, and utilities. He also points to the decline in volume. In the last several months stocks and indices have gone higher on lower volume and down on bigger volume.
“As we go down, we’re going to have some lifts,” he said, “but… all of the indicators I’m looking at [show] it gets worst, probably.”