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Dennis Gartman: Don't Get Preoccupied with Summer Swoon

On Tuesday investors were closely watching the action in the S&P, which jumped at the open but then pared gains, adding to the growing chatter that a correction is coming.

Skeptics called the early advance nothing more than month end window dressing, a practice in which money mangers buy additional shares of their winning positions to present their portfolios in a better light.

Bears point to weak fundamentals and argue the latest economic data shows that the recovery is stalling out.

For example, in May consumer confidence fell, single-family home prices dropped, and the ISM-Chicago data showed business activity in the Midwest grew much less than expected.

Are the bears right? Should you prepare for the worst?

According to strategic investor Dennis Gartman, it's probably a mistake to become too preoccupied with a summer swoon. “Do I think we’re going into a recession – not at all,” he says during a live interview on CNBC’s Fast Money.

Gartman says he watches a slew of indicators and none suggest serious trouble ahead. He’s talking about things like the ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, money supply, the yield curve and more, all of which in the past have forecast recession. "None of those are telling us anything other than (to expect) continued economic strength,” he says.

If you’re looking to put money to work over the course of a year Gartman adds “bias on the side that the economies of the world will continue to get stronger."

That's not to say you should establish those positions today; the stock market cetaintly could correct. It's simply that Gartman doesn't think a sell-off will be anything other than healthy for the market.

Trader Jon Najarian agrees. “If this was a swoon, I want more,” he says. “The declines of May were nothing. Are you kidding me?”

Najarian charges that although parts of the economy may be struggling – the big picture still shows strength. He points to results from Tiffany as a sign that the high-end is in tact. “Weakness in not everywhere, by no means.”

Trader Brian Kelly agrees entirely. In fact he thinks a June swoon is off the table. In fact he suggests that the S&P is almost in a win win situation because if economic signs continue to suggest weakness the Fed will leverage $1.4 trillion dollars in reserves than can be released into the economy.

Trader Joe Terranova is also positive. If you’re concerned about global growth he points to the latest results from Germany. “It’s all about Germany and Germany is strong,” he says. “Portugal, Greece, Ireland, in terms of making trades, they are not relevant to the conversation.”

But that’s not to say all the traders are bullish. Trader Steve Cortes is on the other side. He thinks weakness in the BRIC nations is a sign that global growth is moderating. And he also expects the dollar to continue higher – lately a stronger dollar has been a headwind for stocks.

What do you think? We want to know!

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TOPPING THE TAPE: NON-NUKE PLAYS SURGING ON GERMAN BAN

Germany also moved the energy markets on Tuesday after word hit that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government plans to pull the plug on all of its nuclear plants, gradual shutting them down.

What’s the play?

Steve Cortes tells the desk he's long Exelon and Southern . Although nuclear energy may not expand, "it's here to stay," he says.

Jon Najarian reminds the desk that Germany's ban doesn't go into effect for 10 years, "not unitl 2022," he says. "That's a lot of time for this to play out."

Joe Terranova thinks these developments could be bullish for nat gas, which he'd play long UPL or Chesapeake .



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Trader disclosure: On May 31, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Steve Cortes owns (SO), (EXC), (KFT) and (K). Steve Cortes is short Nikkei. Steve Cortes is short EEM vs. S&P long. Steve Cortes is short (CAT). Steve Cortes is short (DE). Steve Cotes is short (CX). Steve Cortes is short Australian Dollars. Joe Terranova owns (XOM), (KSS), (CVI), (OXY), (TM), (BJ), (DIS), (PFE), (V), (HPQ), (FLX), (JPM), (MCD), (PEP) and (VRTS). Joe Terranova is short (DELL). Jon Najarian owns (AAPL), is short (AAPL) calls. Jon Najarian owns (IMAX), is short (IMAX) calls. Jon Najarian owns (AMZN) is short (AMZN) calls. Jon Najarian owns (OVTI) is short (OVTI) calls. Jon Najarian owns (CIGX) is short (CIGX) calls.

Brian Kelly
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital own (SLV) calls
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital own (GLD) calls
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital own (TLT) calls
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital own (AAPL) calls
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital own (HOC) calls
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital own (MCP) calls
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital own (ANDE) calls
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital own (FCX) calls
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital are short yen

Joe Terranova
Terranova is Chief Market Strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABAX)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (AMKR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CCG)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CSVI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (FCFS)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (KRC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (NRCI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLF)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of DOMINO'S PIZZA UK & URL PLC
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DRYS)




CNBC.com with wires.

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USD INDEX
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S&P 500
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CHK
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EXC
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SO
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TIF
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UPL
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