Buy Euro, Sell Swiss Franc: Contrarian Analyst
With the Swiss Franc sitting at a record high against the euro one analyst told CNBC.com that it could be time to bet against the safe haven currency.
“We could see a final push lower for the euro against the Swiss Franc but if the EU can outline a credible, structured road forward on the euro zone debt crisis the euro could trade at 1.40 versus the Franc by the end of the next year,” Mark O'Sullivan, the Director of Dealing at Currencies Direct, said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.
Now O’Sullivan admits the EU solving the debt crisis is a big "if" but maintains that a solution, and restructuring, is on the cards sooner rather than later.
“The only way out of this that does not involve crisis after crisis is a unified European bond market. At some point Germany will have to pay for a solution via higher borrowing costs. They cannot keep bailing out one country after another,” said O’Sullivan.
Having failed to call the credit crisis the credit ratings agencies are finally telling people things they don’t want to hear, in O’Sullivan’s view.
“The politicians do not want to hear this but S&P’s decision to rate Greece at CCC is evidence of them doing their job properly,” he said.
O’Sullivan said for the EU to find a meaningful, structured road out of this crisis the ratings agencies, the IMF, ECB and European Council will have to agree on a strategy that will not please everyone. “The only way is a unified bond market.”
But the German government would need to sell such a deal.
O’Sullivan also told CNBC.com that if stocks continue to fall, and lose 15 percent over the summer months, the clamor for a third round of money printing by the Federal Reserve, also known as QE3 (quantitative easing 3) will be huge.
“Given the limited impact of QE1 and QE2 on Main Street, it remains to be seen if even these losses would see the Fed push ahead with QE3," he said.