GO
Loading...

Jon Najarian: The Hidden Bull Market

Thursday, 7 Jul 2011 | 1:29 PM ET

On Thursday investors were struggling to get a handle on the market, with widespread buying again pushing the S&P higher.

Stocks have largely been on a tear since late June with investors gobbling up a wide range of sectors including tech, retail , industrials , and even banks after Greece agreed to greater austerity measures.

Investors interpreted developments as an all clear sign – that Greece would avoid defaulting on its debt and contagion was no longer an imminent threat.

However, the march higher has been fast and furious with some investors now growing worried that the sharp gains were due to irrational exuberance as much as anything else.

Some technical analysts say the S&P 500 is about to run into strong overhead resistance around 1363 - the highs for the year.

How should you position? What should you be watching.

Instant Insights with the Fast Money traders

Trader Jon Najarian believes there’s a bull market hidden amid the broader stock market. Although the S&P 500 struggles to make a new high for the year many single stocks have already exploded out to new bull market highs, he says. And the names are wide ranging including Amazon, Netflix , Coca Cola and Wynn . “I’m long and holding,” he says. “I don’t see any reason to get out of the market.

Like so many other investors Najarian thinks the next big catalyst will be the jobs number released Friday morning.

WOTS: Retail Run & Debt Talks
The Fast Money traders weigh in on the big comeback in retail stocks, and CNBC's Eamon Javers with details on the debt ceiling talks at the White House.

Data from payrolls processor ADP showed U.S. private hiring increased by more than double expectations. “Could we see that same thing on Friday? There’s a lot of speculation out there that we could,” says Najarian. “Could it be 200K, sure it could,”

"If tomorrow's (jobs) report follows through on today's positive ADP report and comes in above 125,000, that could be enough to push equity markets through the top end of the trading range," adds Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in a Reuters interview.

Trader Steve Grasso also thinks the market will flirt with its 2011 high again, but he believes rhetoric coming out of DC about the debt ceiling will be the catalyst. “If we get signs of resolution sooner rather than later, I think market rips up to 1361 - 1363,” he says.

Trader Patty Edwards is also a buyer of the market even at current levels. “I’m fully invested,” she admits, “but if I wasn’t in – I would be buying. I think the rally will go farther.”

Trader Zach Karabell is the only voice of caution. Although he's a bull long term, in the short-term he says, “markets don’t go up in a straight line for weeks upon weeks. We’re going to hit something. Don’t get too far ahead of yourself.”

------------

RETAIL RUNNING WITH THE BULLS

No jobs and high gas prices – no problem? Target, Macy's and many other retailers blew away estimates for June sales.

The latest same store data paints a very different and much more optimistic picture of the economy.

How should you trade?

Patty Edwards thinks retailers had a number of strong tailwinds including modestly lower prices at the pump and good weather. "A lot of pent up demand came out but I’m not sure if demand holds."

Trader Steve Grasso is also skeptical. He suggests looking at the gains in ANF and URBN. "A lot of names in this space are already sharply higher for the month. I would not put new money to work at these levels," he says.

------------

IMPROVING ECONOMIC NUMBERS BOOST FINANCIALS

They had been the black sheep in the white hot market rally – we’re talking the financials. But on Thursday investors turned positive on the sector with JPMorgan among the biggest winners.

What’s the trade?

Although Steve Grasso admits the sector could gain if Friday's jobs report is strong, with so many other headwinds he'd hesitate to put new money to work.

Trader Zach Karabell agrees. "I don’t like the group," he says. "They’re in difficult circumstances."

------------

CALL OF THE DAY: IBM DOWNGRADE

Guy Adami might not like this next item. Wells Fargo downgraded his favorite tech stock, IBM, to “Market Perform” from “Outperform” saying near term upside is limited.

In the past Adami has said he thinks IBM is heading to $200.

But Wells analyst Jason Maynard doesn't buy it. "We just don’t think the multiple is going to expand," he says.

Get all the details. Watch the video now!

IBM Stock Dips on Downgrade
Insight on why "Big Blue" may be fully valued, with Jason Maynard, Wells Fargo analyst.





______________________________________________________
Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment, but not have it published on our Web site, send those e-mails to fastmoney@cnbc.com.


Trader disclosure: On July 7, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Edwards owns (TGT); Edwards owns (MSFT); Edwards owns (AAPL); Edwards owns (QCOM); Edwards owns (SLV); Edwards owns (GLD); Edwards owns (AKAM); Edwards owns (BMO); Edwards owns (BKCC); Edwards owns (LECO); Edwards owns (WLT); Edwards owns (TTM); Edwards owns (HAL); Grasso owns (AKS); Grasso owns (AMD); Grasso owns (ASTM); Grasso owns (BA); Grasso owns (BAC); Grasso owns (C); Grasso owns (D); Grasso owns (JPM); Grasso owns (LIT); Grasso owns (LPX); Grasso owns (MAR); Grasso owns (MHY); Grasso owns (NDAQ); Grasso owns (PFE); Grasso owns (PRST); Grasso owns (XHB); Grasso owns (XLB); Grasso owns (XLI); Karabell owns (AAPL); Karabell owns (HON); Karabell owns (GE); Karabell owns (GS); Karabell owns (XRT); Karabell owns (GOOG)

For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (ABX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (CSCO)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (HPQ)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (MU)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (MSFT)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own (UAL)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners own(XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners are short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel & Co and its partners short (AAPL)

For Zachary Karabell
River Twice Capital owns (QCOM)
River Twice Capital owns (XLF)
River Twice Capital is short SPY puts
River Twice Capital is short QQQ
River Twice Capital is short IJK



CNBC.com with wires.

  Price   Change %Change
S&P 500
---
AMZN
---
ANF
---
IBM
---
JPM MLP ETN
---
KO
---
M
---
NFLX
---
TGT
---
URBN
---
WYNN
---
SPDR FIN SEL
---
SPDR IND SEL
---
SPDR TEC SEL
---
SPDR SPRET
---

Contact Halftime Report

  • Showtimes

    Halftime Report - Weekdays 12p ET
    Fast Money - Weekdays 5p ET
  • Scott Wapner is host of the "Fast Money Halftime Report," which airs weekdays from 12 p.m. to 1 p.m. ET.