“The most important thing was the dissents,” says strategic investor Dennis Gartman. "That was a huge change.”
Gartman is referring to the latest Fed statement and the fact that after past Fed meetings dissenters have been hawkish, but this time the dissenter said the Fed was not easing enough.
“That’s a huge change in my opinion,” Gartman says.
And that one aspect of the Fed statement was enough to influence the way Gartman trades. Here's his takeaway:
“If you thought QE3 was on the table it’s not – and tightening is not on the table until 2013.” In other words, no catalyst will be coming from the Fed. Position accordingly.
The other Fast traders agree that the dissents are the big takeaway.
”The hawks could have dissented and said the Fed is already doing too much; they could have criticized Operation Twist. But they didn’t,” says Brian Kelly.
”The statement is a disappointment for anyone who thought QE3 was imminent,” says trader Steve Cortes.
Cortes takes the statement to mean QE3 is off the table not only now but through the rest of the year. “Accommodation is not on the way.”
Trader Stephen Weiss was cheered by other commentary.
The committee, in a 9-1 vote, said economic conditions actually have improved somewhat and the outlook for inflation has eased as commodity prices have dropped. The market could take that part of the statement as a sign the economy is improving, at least on a relative basis.
"I wouldn't take that as a sign to buy stocks," cautions Cortes. "I think a lot of the recent optimism in the market was based on expectations of QE3" and not economic growth.
If you're looking for a trade our pros say the strength in the dollar post-Fed is noteworthy. “I’m adding to my long position in the dollar,” adds Cortes.
Gartman is watching the strength in gold. Considering the EU will probably have to drop rates, Gartman says, "gold will probably climb quietly higher in dollar terms but materially higher in euro terms."
What do you think? We want to know!
