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How to Trade the Euro After the ECB Money Tender

Wednesday, 21 Dec 2011 | 12:41 PM ET
Mike Kemp | Getty Images

The European Central Bank's money tender was a hit, but the euro weakened anyway. Here's what to do now.

When the European Central Bank set out to offer banks three-year loans through a long-term refinancing operation, or LTRO, no one expected the sale to be quite so popular.

News that banks snapped up 489 billion euros of loans eased worries about bank solvency - but the euro couldn't hold its initial gains. And that, says MacNeil Curry, head of foreign exchange and interest rates technical strategy at Bank of America, is a worrisome sign.

"A market that can't rally on good news is significantly weak," he told CNBC's Melissa Lee. "It indicates that the path of least resistance is still clearly to the downside."

The fact that the euro's uptick was short-lived is a sign that "there were really no new buyers," Curry says, and he recommends selling the euro "right around current levels, ultimately targeting a move towards 1.25 before all is said and done."

Money in Motion: Euro Trade
How should you trade the euro in the wake of this morning's rally reversal? Macneil Curry, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, assesses.

You can watch the whole discussion on this videotape.

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