First 5 Trading Days: An Early Harbinger
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, there have been 38 instances since 1950 when the market was up during the first five days of the years. During those occurrences, the market followed with a full-year gain 87 percent of the time, producing an average gain of 13.9 percent.
Will history repeat itself? In the past five trading session, the S&P 500 is up 1.8 percent.
Indeed, the gains mark the best first five days since 2010, when the index was up 2.7 percent during the period. The start of that year was a telling sign for what was to come as the S&P finished 2010 with significant increases, up 23.5 percent.
What’s different about this year?
Trading volume is relatively low. NYSE consolidated tape averages 3.6 billion shares daily for the last five sessions (including Monday's). That compares with the first five trading days of 2011 when the averaged stood at 4.3 billion shares.