- Spain to Go to Market to Fund Banks, Regions
- Home Prices Hit Fresh Lows, But 'We See Signs of Hope'
- JPMorgan Implicated in Japan's Insider Trading Probe
- Cramer's Top Dividend Plays
- Manufacturing May Be Poised for a Quantum Leap
- Why June Could Be a Turning Point for Markets
- BlackBerry Maker Hires Advisers to Review Business
- Facebook Faces Extended US Review of Instagram Deal
- Shares of Facebook Fall Below $29 for First Time
- PB&J, Mac & Cheese Step Out From Kids-Fare Shadow
- Ackman: JCPenney Sales Have Hit 'Bottom'
- Goldman Investment Shines Light on Solar Power
- Facebook Options Soar on First Day
- Home Prices Hit Lows, But 'We See Signs of Hope'
- Auto Sales to Really Take Off This Summer?
- JPMorgan Debacle Points to Regulatory Incompetence, Corruption
- Are You Ready for Facebook Options?
- Option Bulls Dig Into Ivanhoe Near Lows
MOST SHARED
- Advanced Manufacturing Could Spark Next Industrial Revolution
- Facebook Stock Falls Below $29 for First Time
- Stocks to Watch: RIMM, LULU, DAL & More
- Marubeni Buys Gavilon for $3.6 Billion as It Eyes China
- Whistleblower Woodford Wins Olympus Settlement
- Cramer’s One-on-One with Airgas CEO
- BlackBerry Maker RIM Hires Advisers to Review Business
- Home Prices Hit Lows, But 'We See Signs of Hope'
- Digital Generation Bottomed Out: Finerman
- Lightning Round: Advance Auto Parts, Michael Kors, Pilgrim's and More
MOST POPULAR
HOT ON FACEBOOK
Oil Price Spike Likely 'Within Months': Charts Pro
Text Size 
Deputy News Editor, CNBC.com
An oil price spike is likely this year as 10-year volatility is below average and geopolitical risks are not properly priced in, Ron William, a technical strategist at Mig Bank, told CNBC.com.
 |
Daniel Hurst | Photographer's Choice | Getty Images |
Brent [LCOCV1
Loading...
()
] crude prices slipped on Thursday on worries that a second Greek bailout could be postponed. They hit a six-month high in the previous session after Iran announced progress on its nuclear facilities.
Reports that Iran had stopped oil exports to six European countries also contributed to the spike in price, but they were denied by the oil ministry later on Wednesday.
"From a market perspective, there is very little geopolitical risk priced into the market," William said in an interview.
"Historical oil volatility over the last 10 years shows that oil spikes are regular or cyclical. They happen every year or so, but of course the degree of the price spike varies," he said, adding that volatility in oil is trading below its 10-year average at the moment.
"From just a pure trading perspective, that suggests a growing probability of a price spike within months," William said.
Since January 25, when the European Union announced a July 1 deadline to impose an embargo on imports of Iranian crude, the price held in range, but that is about to change, according to William.
For West Texas Intermediate oil, $100 a barrel is the key psychological level, he said.
"Technically I think WTI [CLCV1
Loading...
()
] is likely to have short-term weakness into key support at $90 but then thereafter a growing upside risk of a challenge of the April 2011 peak, roughly $114."
"It would be very positive for gold [XAU=
Loading...
()
], and that ties in with a cycle view that I have for gold going into the summer period of this year. It would be negative for equity markets, potentially negative for the US dollar [.DXY
Loading...
()
]," William said.
But other trading experts disagree. Dennis Gartman, of The Gartman Letter, said the world was facing an oversupply of energy in the very near future.
"There may be trouble in the Persian Gulf or one of the other 'hot spots' around the world, but there is no tightness of supply given the huge new finds of oil and nat-gas," Gartman said.
- Companies that establish sustainable principles are positioned for long-term success, says this blogger.
- Advanced manufacturing is about customization, high-precision and performance. And it’s everywhere.
- Many veterans are turning to franchising as a way to make a living once they are out of the military.
- Have you ever wished you could just quit your job and follow your dream? These people have.
- Emerging-market bulls should look to Brazil, South Africa and Russia, as well as Thailand and South Korea.
- Some beers are better than others. An annual competition chose the ones that are the best.
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
