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How to Use Currencies to Trade the Payroll Report

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Ready for the latest employment data? This strategist has a trading plan.

Don't look now, but there are signs that employment could be at a turning point - or so says Joe Lavorgna, Deutsche Bank's chief economist.

"The street is missing what we're seeing in the various consumer confidence sentiment surveys," he told CNBC's Melissa Lee. Lavorgna argues that the improvement in what consumers are saying about the labor market "is typically reflective of an inflection point" in the economy.

Lavorgna expects the next nonfarm payrolls report, on March 9, to beat investors expectations and come in close to 255,000.

Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, is also bullish on employment - and she has a currency trading plan.

If payrolls come in under 200,000, Bourdeau wants to sell the dollar against the Japanese yen, on the theory that risk aversion would hit the dollar harder. But if payrolls come in better than expected - her more likely case - Bourdeau wants to sell the dollar against the Canadian dollar.

"Better data for the U.S. benefits Canada as well," she explains.

Bourdeau wants to enter the trade at 0.9880 with a stop at 1.0060 and a target of 0.9400.

You can watch the discussion on this video.

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CURRENCY FUTURES

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