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Busch: Currency Playbook for the Employment Report

Euro coin in front of the giant symbol of the Euro outside the headquarters of the European Central Bank.
Thomas Lohnes | AFP | Getty Images
Euro coin in front of the giant symbol of the Euro outside the headquarters of the European Central Bank.

Here's a simple strategy to play Friday's employment report using the euro and the dollar.

Let's do a simple playbook for US employment on Friday using EUR/USD.

If nonfarm payrolls are greater than 225k, then sell EUR/USD.

If they are less than 225K, then buy EUR/USD.

I think scenario #1 has the biggest potential payout.

Why?

EUR/USD still has big problems with growth, and the European Central Bank should ease by cutting rates by this summer. The two-year yield differential is growing in favor of the dollar and is at 16.7 basis points.

Technically, there is an uptrend channel that has the lower channel support at 1.3130 and a classic head and shoulders pattern forming with the neckline at 1.3035. If the 1.3130 breaks, then we'll have a great chance that the 1.3035 breaks. The break of the neckline should generate a 500-point drop.

Sell EUR/USD at current spot (or 1.3200 if we get a bounce before the data on Friday.) Set a stop/loss at 1.3427, above recent highs, and a target of 1.2550 - a big move to the downside.

Andrew B. BuschDirector, Global Currency and Public Policy Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, a recognized expert on the world financial markets and how these markets are impacted by political events, and a contributor to CNBC's Money in Motion Currency Trading.You can comment on his piece and reach him hereand you can follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/abusch .

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