The Next $1 Trillion Nations: Turkey and Indonesia?

Wednesday, 2 May 2012 | 10:29 AM ET

Turkey and Indonesia could be the next economies to reach $1 trillion-status, Ruchir Sharma, author of "Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles", told CNBC.

Expectations of Some Emerging Markets Have Become Inflated: Author
Ruchir Sharma, author of Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles, told CNBC, "Because of the trend of the last decade where every single emerging market did well, this myth got propagated that all these countries are bound to converge with the developed world, this was because of a flood of easy money across the world."

Sharma, who heads emerging market equities at Morgan Stanley, said investors looking to gain exposure to emerging markets growthshould consider countries on an individual basis, and highlighted Turkey, Indonesia and Poland as likely to outperform.

“We need to go back to the old era of differentiating, of deciding which economies are the ones which will surprise on the upside and which will disappoint. Because the previous decade’s trend of every single economy and every single debt market doing well is over,” Sharma told CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box Europe’.

“We need to stop talking about emerging markets as a homogeneous entity,” he said.

Sharma touted Indonesia and Turkey as the next joiners to the exclusive "$1 trillion club", an informal group of countries with economiesworth at least $1 trillion.

He added that market expectations for some emerging economies, such as China and India, had become “really inflated” and investors were “set up for disappointment”.

Sharma’s view on China contrasts with that of Clive McDonnell, head of equity strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, who forecasts outperformance by China in the second quarter of 2012.


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