Fasten Your Seatbelts, FX Investors
The forex markets will soon be littered with event risk, this strategist says.
Enjoying the dog days of August? You'd better because we're in for a bumpy ride. The slow times are about to end, says Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.
"September is littered with event risk," she wrote in a note to clients, with key events likely to sway both the euro and the dollar at different times.
The fun actually starts at the tail end of August. That's when China will release its latest PMI report - oh, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to give a little speech in Jackson Hole.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will speak a day later, and then on September 6, "we expect the ECB to clarify the details of its bond buying program" at its monthly meeting, Sutton says.
A week later, Germany's top court is due to issue its ruling on the constitutionality of providing aid to troubled euro zone countries, and on September 13 the Fed could announce another round of quantitative easing, which would probably push the dollar lower.
On top of all that, it's unclear when or whether Spain will request aid, Sutton says. "Delaying a request for aid threatens rising yields and ultimately another weight on EUR." And while "commentary following the meetings between Chancellor Merkel, President Hollande and Prime Minister Samaras appear to support the view that Greece will receive its next tranche of €31bn," she says, "a negative report would push Grexit back into the headlines and limit any EUR gains."
If the markets feel too quiet right now, don't worry. It won't last.
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