Go Symbol Lookup
Loading...

Euro Zone Faces 'Winter of Discontent': Pro

 Text Size  
Published: Tuesday, 16 Oct 2012 | 7:52 AM ET
By: | Associate Editor, CNBC

Europe faces a winter of discontent as austerity cripples southern Europe and heightens public anger over measures taken to soothe policymakers in Brussels, Alastair Newton, Senior Political Analyst at Nomura told CNBC Tuesday.

Strikes and protests, many of them violent, have swept across southern Europe in recent months as the public reacts to tax cuts and other measures which have deepened the recession and increased unemployment in Greece and Spain in particular.

"We're heading towards a second winter of discontent and across the euro zone. We are going to see rising civil unrest. We've seen a long trend of anti-incumbency across Europe.

Many of the coalition governments across southern Europe are weak and there is every chance that the Portuguese government won't last full term, " Newton said.

He added that this sentiment would worsen because the euro zone agenda was being driven by what is best for the German election cycle rather than individual countries' needs, "It is delay, delay, delay [and] it's not good.

The German elections are a year away but every decision that I see being made in Berlin, or non-decision, is giving consideration to the German political cycle.

Merkel is trying to delay a vote on Greece and Spain at the moment so that it can put into one package, one vote and one chance of it to go wrong, " he said.

Protesters reacted angrily to the Portuguese government's announcement of its harshest budget on record for 2013 as it strives to meet the strict conditions of its international 78 billion euro bailout ($100 billion).

There are fears that the measures which include a number of tax rises as well as cuts to what is seen as a bloated public sector will further exacerbate the country's recession.

Will the Portuguese Govt Survive Austerity?
Alastair Newton, senior political analyst at Nomura, tells CNBC, Portugal should be given credit for trying to push through hard measures, but it still has a lot to do and has to learn how to grow competitively.

Supporters of the budget claim it merely brings Portugal in line with many standard measures in Northern Europe.

"Even in the good years Portugal's growth rate was pretty parlous just around 1 percent – it needs to learn how to grow competitively, it's just not competitive, even putting austerity to one side, " Newton said.

Despite the on-going lack of resolution to the crisis Newton said the Germans appetite for a Greek exit had abated despite the fact that the country has been dogged by "Grexit" rumors for more than a year.

"For the moment it seems like the Greeks are staying in, Angela Merkel [German chancellor] seems to have decided that the economic consequences are not worth it – changing her mind for at least the second time in the last six months, " Newton said.

However he warned that there would be big question marks on whether the Greeks could hit their numbers whatever slack goes their way.

Bailout Fatigue

Talk of various countries leaving the euro zone has intensified over the last few months as core northern European countries and their electorate tire of the ongoing crisis and the financial burden of keeping struggling economies afloat.

"Bailout fatigue is gripping the Netherlands and Finland and Merkel has to keep that in mind. It's not going to be easy to hold this together, " Newton said.

Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy told CNBC.com that any meaningful action on shoring up the euro zone would not take place until the December summit.

"There's unlikely to be any meaningful progress in the euro zone until December and even this could prove disappointing.

A degree of complacency has set in following the ECB's pledge to buy unlimited amounts of short-dated Spanish and Italian paper, " Spiro said.

He added that he did not see a Greek exit in the short term but said policymakers were "unwilling to take the necessary steps to secure Greece's membership of the single currency area."

By CNBC's Shai Ahmed, Follow her on Twitter @shaicnbc

 Print
Europe faces a winter of discontent as austerity cripples southern Europe and heightens public anger over measures taken to soothe policymakers in Brussels, Alastair Newton, Senior Political Analyst at Nomura told CNBC Tuesday.

   
Comments

 

More Comments

 
 

Add Comments

 

Your Comments (Up to 1100 characters):

Remaining characters

Your comments have not been posted yet.

Please review your submission to make sure you are comfortable with your entry.

Your Comments:


                
            
            
        

Featured

  • Adam Posen, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    Economist and former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Adam Posen said while outgoing governor Mervyn King made a series of misjudgements.

  • Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary is disappointed that neither Boeing nor Airbus could offer him a few more seats on their single-aisle planes to allow for cheaper fares.

  • "Proactive vigilance" is needed to safeguard the "hard won" solvency of Spain's banking system, and Europe needs to do more to ease Spain's financial woes.

  • In a week that Boeing's Dreamliner has met its new challenger in the form of the Airbus A350, the U.S. firm maintains that the European aircraft will not affect its share of the wide body market.

Europe Video

  • European shares closed lower on Wednesday, as investors awaited a key policy statement by the Federal Reserve after its two-day meeting.

  • Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, explains that markets expects Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to say that tapering is not the same as tightening, and advises on how to invest.

  • Volker Treier, deputy chief executive at the German Chamber of Industry & Commerce, comments on Obama's Berlin speech, and its emphasis on shared values.