Commodity Super-Cycle Is Over: Citigroup
The commodity super-cycle is over, warns a new report from Citigroup's Global Commodities Strategy Group.
The message here is bold and clear—forget the era of easy money and long only investing. Welcome to a brave new world for commodity investors, "The New Abnormal."
Replete with references to global climate change and China's transforming economy, the analysts paint a picture of increasing supply, changing demand and plenty of opportunity for savvy investors. (Read More: Why the Days of Stock Picking May Be Coming to an End)
The report is so relevant that the analysts at RBC Capital Markets highlighted the Citi report in their own report Monday, under the subject, "In Other News."
On the supply side, the natural gas revolution in the United States is highlighted as an example of what is going on across the space—more money chasing new supply resulting in a surplus of various commodities.
But, increased supply is coming at a time when demand is slackening. According to the report China, always the "X" factor when talking about global economic demand is facing two structural changes including, "lower-paced growth and a far less commodity–intensive economy."
Increased supply and decreased demand should lead to falling prices in the near-term though Citi analysts do see demand starting to recover by the end of 2013.
As for global climate change, the analysts point out that seasonality has been "on the rise," due to changes in precipitation and temperature, most markedly in oil and agriculture.
That seasonality is "impacting fuel and food and through them inflation rates across the world"—no small issue for a hungry planet.
According to the report, there are roughly $240-$250 billion in commodity assets under management spread across the benchmark indices.