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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update will offer new measures of how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. On a daily basis, Moody's Analytics and CNBC will measure how much an economic news release changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists for Gross Domestic Product. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.

Updated: November 25, 2014

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

 
Q3
Q4
Consensus, median 3.9 2.6
# of Estimates 10 10

How Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
Vehicle sales (Jul) 0
Factory orders (Jun) 0.1
Trade deficit (Jun) 0
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0
Retail sales (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) -0.2
PPI (Jul), Industrial production (Jul) 0
CPI (July), Housing starts (Jul) 0.1
New-home sales (Jul) 0
Durable goods (Jul) 0.3
GDP (Q2, second estimate) 0
Personal income/spending (Jul) -0.2
Construction spending (Jul) 0
Factory orders (Jul) 0
Vehicle sales (Aug), Trade deficit (Jul) 0.2
Employment (Aug) 0
Wholesale Trade (Jul) -0.1
Retail sales (Aug), Business inventories (Jul), Treasury budget (Aug), Import prices (Aug) 0.2
Industrial production (Aug) 0
CPI (Aug) 0
Housing starts (Aug) 0
New-home sales (Aug) 0
Durable goods (Aug) 0
GDP (Q2, third estimate) 0
Personal income/spending (Aug) 0
Construction spending (Aug) -0.2
Vehicle sales (Sept), Factory orders (Aug) -0.1
Employment (Sept), Trade (Aug) 0.2
Wholesale trade (Aug) 0
Retail sales (Sept), Business inventories (Aug), PPI (Sept) -0.3
Treasury budget (Sept), Industrial production (Sept) 0
Housing starts (Sept) 0
CPI (Sept) 0
New-home sales (Sept) 0
Durable goods (Sept) 0
Construction spending (Sept) -0.1
International trade (Sept) -0.4
Wholesale trade (Sept) 0
Business inventories (Sept) 0
GDP (Q3, second estimate) 0.5

How Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
International trade (Sept), Vehicle sales (Oct) 0
Employment (Oct) 0
Retail sales (Oct), Import/Export prices (Oct) 0
Industrial production (Oct) 0
Housing starts (Oct) 0
CPI (Oct) 0
GDP (Q3, second estimate) 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

 
Q3
Q4
Consensus 3.5 2.6
# of Estimates 9 10

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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