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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update will offer new measures of how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. On a daily basis, Moody's Analytics and CNBC will measure how much an economic news release changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists for Gross Domestic Product. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.

Updated: May 26, 2015

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

 
2015Q1
2015Q2
Consensus, median -1.0 2.6
# of Estimates 11 11

How 2015Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
Employment (Jan) 0
Wholesale trade (Dec) 0
Treasury budget (Jan), Retail sales (Jan) 0
Housing starts (Jan), PPI (Jan), Industrial production (Jan) 0
New-home sales (Jan) 0
Durable goods (Jan), CPI (Jan) 0
2014Q4 GDP (second estimate) 0.1
Personal income (Jan), Construction spending (Jan) -0.2
Vehicle sales (February) 0
Factory orders (January) 0
Trade (Jan) -0.2
Wholesale trade (Jan) 0.1
Retail sales (Feb), Business inventories (Jan), Import prices (Feb) -0.3
Industrial production 0
Housing starts (Feb) 0
New-home sales (Feb), CPI (Feb) 0
Durable goods (Feb) -0.2
GDP (Q4-third estimate) 0
Personal income/spending (Feb) -0.4
Construction spending (Feb) 0
Vehicle sales (Mar), Trade (Feb), Factory orders (Feb) 0.2
Employment (Mar) 0
Wholesale trade (Feb) 0
Retail sales (Mar), Business inventories (Feb), Treasury Budget (Mar) 0
Industrial production (Mar), Housing starts (Apr) 0
Durable goods (Mar), New-home sales (Mar) -0.1
Real GDP (2015Q1-advance) -0.8
Construction spending (Mar), Retail sales (annual revisions) 0
Factory orders (Mar) -0.1
Trade (Mar) -0.6
Wholesale trade (Mar) -0.3
Business inventories (Mar), Retail sales (Apr-revisions) -0.2
Factory orders (annual revisions) -0.1

How 2015Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
Vehicle sales (Apr) 0.1
Wholesale trade (Mar), Employment (Apr) 0
Business inventories (Mar), Retail sales (Apr-revisions), Import prices (Apr) 0
Industrial production (Apr) 0
Housing starts (Apr) 0
Consumer price index (Apr) 0
Durable goods (Apr), New-home sales (Apr) 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change, 2015

 
2015Q1
2015Q2
Consensus -1.0 3.4
# of Estimates 10 11

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

Economy

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  • San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams

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    The former Federal Reserve chair said there were no signs of extreme movements in the U.S. real estate and financial markets.

  • Treasury Secretary Jack Lew testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on Capitol Hill, February 5, 2015 in Washington.

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