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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update will offer new measures of how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. On a daily basis, Moody's Analytics and CNBC will measure how much an economic news release changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists for Gross Domestic Product. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.

Updated: May 5, 2015

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

 
2015Q1
2015Q2
Consensus, median -0.3 2.9
# of Estimates 10 9

How 2015Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
Employment (Jan) 0
Wholesale trade (Dec) 0
Treasury budget (Jan), Retail sales (Jan) 0
Housing starts (Jan), PPI (Jan), Industrial production (Jan) 0
New-home sales (Jan) 0
Durable goods (Jan), CPI (Jan) 0
2014Q4 GDP (second estimate) 0.1
Personal income (Jan), Construction spending (Jan) -0.2
Vehicle sales (February) 0
Factory orders (January) 0
Trade (Jan) -0.2
Wholesale trade (Jan) 0.1
Retail sales (Feb), Business inventories (Jan), Import prices (Feb) -0.3
Industrial production 0
Housing starts (Feb) 0
New-home sales (Feb), CPI (Feb) 0
Durable goods (Feb) -0.2
GDP (Q4-third estimate) 0
Personal income/spending (Feb) -0.4
Construction spending (Feb) 0
Vehicle sales (Mar), Trade (Feb), Factory orders (Feb) 0.2
Employment (Mar) 0
Wholesale trade (Feb) 0
Retail sales (Mar), Business inventories (Feb), Treasury Budget (Mar) 0
Industrial production (Mar), Housing starts (Apr) 0
Durable goods (Mar), New-home sales (Mar) -0.1
Real GDP (2015Q1-advance) -0.8
Construction spending (Mar), Retail sales (annual revisions) 0
Factory orders (Mar) -0.1
Trade (Mar) -0.6

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change, 2015

 
2015Q1
2015Q2
Consensus -0.4 3.4
# of Estimates 8 10

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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