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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update will offer new measures of how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. On a daily basis, Moody's Analytics and CNBC will measure how much an economic news release changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists for Gross Domestic Product. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.

Updated: August 29, 2014

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

 
Q2
Q3
Consensus 4.2 3.1
# of Estimates 10

How Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
Vehicle sales (Apr) and employment (Apr) 0
Trade deficit (Mar) 0.1
Wholesale trade (Mar) 0
Retail sales (Apr) and Business inventories (Mar) 0
CPI (Apr) and Industrial production (Apr) 0
Housing starts (Apr) 0
New-home sales (Apr) 0
Durable goods orders (Apr) 0
GDP (Q1) 0
Personal income/spending (Apr) -0.2
Construction spending (Apr) 0
Factory orders (Apr) 0
Trade deficit (annual revisions) and vehicle sales (May) -0.4
Employment (May) 0
Wholesale trade (Apr) 0.1
Retail sales (May) and Business inventories (Apr) 0
Industrial production (May) 0
Housing starts (May) and CPI (May) 0
New-home sales (May) 0
Q1 GDP (3rd estimate), Durable goods (May) 0.1
Personal income/spending (May) -0.5
Construction spending (May) 0
Vehicle sales (June) and factory orders (May) 0.1
Employment (June), trade deficit (May) 0
Wholesale trade (May) 0
Retail sales (June) , Business inventories (May) 0.1
Industrial production (June), PPI (June) 0
Housing starts (June) -0.1
CPI (June) 0
New-home sales (Jun) 0
Durable goods orders (Jun) 0
Construction spending (Jun) 0
Factory orders (Jun) 0
Trade deficit (Jun) 0.3
Wholesale trade (Jun) -0.3
Retail sales (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) -0.2
Durable goods (Jul) 0.1

How Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
Vehicle sales (Jul) 0
Factory orders (Jun) 0.1
Trade deficit (Jun) 0
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0
Retail sales (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) -0.2
PPI (Jul), Industrial production (Jul) 0
CPI (July), Housing starts (Jul) 0.1
New-home sales (Jul) 0
Durable goods (Jul) 0.3
GDP (Q2, second estimate) 0
Personal income/spending (Jul) -0.2

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

 
Q2
Q3
Consensus 4.2 3.1
# of Estimates 10

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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