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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update will offer new measures of how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. On a daily basis, Moody's Analytics and CNBC will measure how much an economic news release changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists for Gross Domestic Product. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.

Updated: August 28, 2015

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Indicator
2015Q2
2015Q3
Consensus, median 3.7 2.5
# of Estimates 10 11

How 2015Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
Vehicle sales (Apr) 0.1
Wholesale trade (Mar), Employment (Apr) 0
Business inventories (Mar), Retail sales (Apr-revisions), Import prices (Apr) 0
Industrial production (Apr) 0
Housing starts (Apr) 0
GDP (Q1-second estimate) -0.1
Personal income/spending (Apr), Construction spending (Apr) 0.1
Factory orders (Apr) 0
Vehicle sales (May), Trade deficit (Apr) 0.1
Employment (May) 0
Wholesale trade (Apr) 0
Retail sales (May), Import prices (May), Business inventories (May) 0.1
Industrial production (May) 0
Housing starts (May) 0
Consumer price index (May) 0
Durable goods (May), New-home sales (May) 0
GDP (Q1-third estimate) 0
Personal income/spending (May) 0.2
Construction spending (May) 0
Vehicle sales (Jun), Factory orders (May), Employment (Jun) 0
International trade (May) 0
Wholesale inventories (May) 0.1
Retail sales (Jun), Import prices (Jun), Business inventories (May), Treasury budget (Jun) -0.2
Industrial production (Jun), PPI(Jun) 0
Consumer price index (Jun), Housing starts (Jun) 0
New-home sales (Jun) 0
Durable goods (Jun) 0
GDP 2015Q2 (advance estimate) -0.7
Construction spending (Jun) 0.4
Factory orders (Jun) 0.2
International trade (Jun) 0
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0
Retail sales (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) 0.4
GDP (2015Q2-second estimate) 1.4

How 2015Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Indicator
Median
Vehicle sales (Jul) 0
Factory orders (Jun) 0
International trade (Jun) 0
Employment (Jun), Details of Q2 GDP 0
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0
Retail sales (Jul), Business inventories (Jun), Import prices (Jul), Treasury budget (Jul) -0.1
Industrial production (Jul) 0
Housing starts (Jul) 0.1
Consumer price index (Jul) 0
New-home sales (Jul) 0
Durable goods (Jul) 0
GDP (2015Q2-second estimate) 0
Personal income and spending (Jul) 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change, 2015

Indicator
2015Q3
Consensus 2.8
# of Estimates 10

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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