×

Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: February 24, 2017

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Median 2.3 2
Low and highest median estimates to date 1.5 to 2.6 2.0 to 2.3
Average 2.2 2
# of Estimates 6 6

How 2016Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Oct) 0 0
Factory orders (Sept) 0 0
International trade (Sept), Employment (Oct) 0.1 0.1
Retail sales (Oct), Business inventories (Sept) 0.2 0.2
Producer prices (Oct), Industrial production (Oct) 0 0
Consumer prices (Oct), Housing starts (Oct) 0.2 0.2
Existing-home sales (Oct) 0 0
Durable goods (Oct), New-home sales (Oct) 0 -0.1
Advance goods deficit (Oct), Advance inventories (Oct) -0.3 -0.3
Personal income and spending (Oct) 0 -0.1
International trade (Oct), Factory orders (Oct) -0.1 -0.1
Wholesale trade (Oct) 0 0
Treasury budget (Nov), Import prices (Nov) 0 0
Retail sales (Nov), Industrial production (Nov), Business inventories (Oct) -0.2 -0.3
Consumer prices (Nov) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Nov) 0 0
GDP (2016Q3-third estimate), Durable goods (Nov), Personal income/spending (Nov) 0.1 0.1
New-home sales (Nov) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Nov), Advance inventories (Nov) 0.1 0
Construction spending (Nov) 0 0.1
Vehicle sales (Dec) 0 0
Employment (Dec), International trade (Nov), Factory orders (Nov) 0.1 0.1
Wholesale trade (Nov) 0 0.1
Retail sale (Dec), PPI (Nov), Business inventories (Nov) 0 0
Industrial production (Dec), CPI (Dec) 0 0
Housing starts (Dec) 0 0
Existing-home slaes (Dec) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Dec), Advance inventories (Dec), New-home sales (Dec) 0.1 0.1
GDP (2016Q4-advance estimate) -0.5 -0.4
Construction spending (Dec) 0 0
Factory orders (Dec) 0.1 0.1
International trade (Dec) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Dec) 0 0
Retail sales (Jan), Business inventories (Dec) 0.1 0.1
Existing-home sales (Jan) 0 0
New-home sales (Jan) 0 0

How 2017Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Jan) 0 0
Factory orders (Dec) 0 0
International trade (Dec) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Dec) 0 0
Retail sales (Jan), Consumer prices (Jan), Industrial production (Jan), Business inventories (Dec) 0 -0.1
Housing starts (Jan) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Jan) 0 0
New-home sales (Jan) 0 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Median 2.2 2.2
Average 2.2 2.1
# of Estimates 8 9

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

Contact Economy

  • CNBC NEWSLETTERS

    Get the best of CNBC in your inbox

    Please choose a subscription

    Please enter a valid email address
    Get these newsletters delivered to your inbox, and more info about about our products and service. Privacy Policy.