Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update will offer new measures of how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. On a daily basis, Moody's Analytics and CNBC will measure how much an economic news release changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists for Gross Domestic Product. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.

Updated: July 28, 2016

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2016 Q2
Median 2.4
Low and highest median estimates to date 2.0 to 2.8
Average 2.4
# of Estimates 9

How 2016 Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Apr), Factory orders (Mar), International trade (Mar) 0 -0.1
Retail sales (Apr), Producer prices (Apr), Business inventories (Mar) 0.4 0.3
CPI (Apr), Housing starts (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Apr) 0 0
New-home sales (Apr) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Apr) 0.3 0.2
Goods deficit (Apr) 0 0
Personal income and spending (Apr) 0.1 0.2
Construction spending (Apr) -0.1 -0.2
Vehicle sales (May) 0.1 0.1
International trade (Apr), Employment (May), Factory orders (Apr) 0.1 0.1
Quarterly Services Survey (2016Q1) 0 0
Retail sales (May), Business inventories (Apr) -0.1 -0.1
Industrial production (May) 0 0
CPI (May) 0 0.1
Housing starts (May) -0.1 -0.1
Existing-home sales (May) 0 0
New-home sales (May) 0 0
Durable goods (May) -0.1 -0.1
Advance goods deficit (May) 0 0
GDP (2016Q1-third estimate) 0 0
Personal income and spending (May) 0.2 0.3
Construction spending (May) -0.1 -0.1
Vehicle sales (Jun), Factory orders (May) 0 -0.1
International trade (May) -0.1 -0.1
Wholesale inventories 0 0.1
Treasury budget (Jun) 0 0
CPI (Jun), Retail sales (Jun), Industrial production (Jun), Business inventories (May) 0.1 0.1
Housing starts (Jun) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Jun) 0 0
New-home sales (Jun) 0 0
Durable goods (Jun) -0.1 -0.1
Advance goods deficit (Jun), Advance retail and wholesale inventories (Jun) -0.1 -0.2

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2016 Q2
Median 2.5
Average 2.5
# of Estimates 9

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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