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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: May 16, 2017

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2017 Q1
2017Q2
Median 0.9 3.4
Low and highest median estimates to date 0.7 to 2.3 3.4 to 3.8
Average 0.9 3.6
# of Estimates 4 6

How 2017Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Jan) 0 0
Factory orders (Dec) 0 0
International trade (Dec) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Dec) 0 0
Retail sales (Jan), Consumer prices (Jan), Industrial production (Jan), Business inventories (Dec) 0 -0.1
Housing starts (Jan) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Jan) 0 0
New-home sales (Jan) 0 0
Durable goods (Jan) 0 0
GDP (2016Q4-second estimate), Advance goods deficit (Jan), Advance inventories (Jan) -0.1 -0.2
Personal income/spending (Jan), Construction spending (Jan) -0.2 -0.3
Factory orders (Jan) 0 0
International trade (Jan) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Jan) 0 0
Import prices (Feb), Quarterly services survey (2016Q4) 0 0
CPI (Feb), Retail sales (Feb), Business inventories (Feb) 0.1 0.1
Housing starts (Feb) 0 0
Industrial production (Feb) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Feb) 0 0
Durable goods (Feb) 0.1 0.1
Advance goods deficit (Feb), Advance inventories (Feb) 0.2 0.2
Personal income/spending (Feb) -0.3 -0.3
Construction spending (Feb) 0 0
Vehicle sales (Mar), International trade (Feb), Factory orders (Feb) 0 0
Employment (Mar), Wholesale trade (Feb) 0 0
CPI (Mar), Retail sales (Mar), Business inventories (Feb) -0.2 -0.2
Housing starts (Mar), Industrial production (Mar) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Mar) 0 0
New-home sales (Mar) 0 0
Annual retail sales revisions, Durable goods (Mar), Advance goods deficit (Mar), Advance inventories (Mar) -0.2 -0.2
GDP (2017Q1-advance) -0.1 -0.1
Construction spending (Mar) 0.2 0.2
International trade (Mar), Factory orders (Mar) -0.2 -0.2
Wholesale trade (Mar) 0.2 0.1
CPI (Apr), Retail sales (Apr), Business inventories (Mar) 0.1 0.1

How 2017Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Apr)) 0 0
International trade (Mar), Factory orders (Mar) 0.1 0.1
Wholesale trade (Mar) 0 0
CPI (Apr), Retail sales (Apr), Business inventories (Mar) 0 0
Housing starts (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) 0 0.1

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2017 Q1
2017Q2
Median 0.9 3.1
Average 0.9 3.2
# of Estimates 8 9

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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