Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: December 1, 2016

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Median 3.3 2.2
Low and highest median estimates to date 2.5 to 3.3 2.1 to 2.6
Average 3.3 2.1
# of Estimates 5 6

How 2016 Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Jul) 0 0
Factory orders (Jun) 0.1 0.1
International trade (Jun) 0.1 0.1
Wholesale inventories (Jun) -0.1 -0.1
Retail sales (Jul), Producer prices (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) -0.2 -0.2
Consumer prices (Jul), Housing starts (Jul), Industrial production (Jul) 0.1 0.1
New-home sales (Jul) 0.1 0.1
Existing-home sales (Jul) 0 0
Durable goods (Jul) 0 0
GDP (2016Q2-second estimate), Advance goods deficit (Jul), Advance inventories (Jul) 0.2 0.3
Personal income and spending (Jul) 0.2 0.2
Construction spending (Jul) 0 -0.1
Vehicle sales (Aug), Employment (Aug), International trade (Jul) , Factory orders (Jul) 0 0.1
Quarterly Services Survey (2016Q2) 0 0
Wholesale inventories (Jul) 0 0
Retail sales (Aug), Industrial production (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) -0.2 -0.2
Consumer prices (Aug) 0 0
Housing starts (Aug) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Aug) -0.1 -0.1
New-home sales (Aug) 0 0
Durable goods (Aug) 0 0
GDP (2016Q2-third estimate), Advance goods deficit (Aug), Advance inventories (Aug) 0.2 0.2
Personal income and spending (Aug) 0 -0.1
Construction spending (Aug), Vehicle sales (Sept) -0.2 -0.2
International trade (Aug), Factory orders (Aug) 0 0
Retail sales (Sept), Producer prices (Sept), Business inventories (Aug), Treasury Budget (Sept) -0.1 -0.1
Industrial production (Sept) 0 0
Consumer prices (Sept) 0 0
Housing starts (Sept) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Sept) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Sept), Advance inventories (Sept), New-home sales (Sept) 0.4 0.4
Durable goods (Sept) 0 0
GDP (Q3-advance estimate) -0.1 0
Construction spending (Sept) 0.1 0.1
Factory orders (Sept) 0 0
International trade (Sept) 0 0
Retail sales (Oct), Business inventories (Sept) 0.1 0.1
Durable goods (Oct), New-home sales (Oct) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Oct), Advance inventories (Oct) 0 0
GDP (2016Q3-second estimate) 0.1 0.2
Construction spending (Oct) 0.1 0.1

How 2016Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Oct) 0 0
Factory orders (Sept) 0 0
International trade (Sept), Employment (Oct) 0.1 0.1
Retail sales (Oct), Business inventories (Sept) 0.2 0.2
Producer prices (Oct), Industrial production (Oct) 0 0
Consumer prices (Oct), Housing starts (Oct) 0.2 0.2
Existing-home sales (Oct) 0 0
Durable goods (Oct), New-home sales (Oct) 0 -0.1
Advance goods deficit (Oct), Advance inventories (Oct) -0.3 -0.3
Personal income and spending (Oct) 0 -0.1
Construction spending (Oct) 0 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Median 3.3 2.3
Average 3.2 2.2
# of Estimates 8 11

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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