Renowned fund manager says Italy won’t exit the euro and we won’t face another Brexit
- The resurgence of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and Lega has raised concerns that the third largest euro zone economy could leave the bloc.
- UBS strategists said in a note Tuesday that the question is whether this new coalition brings the European project under closer scrutiny.
The two anti-establishment parties looking to clinch power in Italy will not take the country out of the euro zone and reject the single currency, the co-chief of asset management firm Standard Life Aberdeen told CNBC Wednesday.
The resurgence of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and Lega — two anti-establishment parties putting together the next Italian government — has raised concerns that the third largest euro zone economy could leave the bloc. Both parties have, at different occasions, mentioned plans to depart from the common currency pact, though M5S has softened its stance on the issue over time. Nonetheless, the coalition deal between M5S and Lega does not include any reference to officially leaving the 19-member area.
"Clearly the result in Italy has made people think about the anti-euro lobby," Martin Gilbert told CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche in Brussels, but added: "I don't think we are going to see any significant change."
"I don't think we are going to see a Brexit for instance … I don't think we are going to see anything of that magnitude."
The new power-sharing deal between Lega and M5S has lead various analysts to predict the future for the embattled euro nation that still has hefty public debt loads and sizeable non-performing loans in its banking sector. UBS strategists said in a note Tuesday that the question is whether this new coalition brings the European project under closer scrutiny.
"We believe this is unlikely given Italian leaders have already backpedalled from their most extreme positions," the analysts said.
The incoming coalition's intention to increase public spending and re-negotiate European fiscal rules could spark heated discussions with Brussels. The focus is now on President Sergio Mattarella, who needs to approve the names of the new cabinet. Mattarella is taking his time to sign off the choice for prime minister — private law professor Giuseppe Conte — and also the choice for finance minister, Paolo Savona — a euroskeptic economist. Expectations are that Mattarella will announce his decisions on Thursday.