Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of plots and provocations ahead of war anniversary

The Russia-Ukraine war is characterized by an ammunition shortage, Eurasia Group chairman Cliff Kupchan told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."

China providing Russia with the ammunition it lacks could "swing ... the war in Russia's favor," said Kupchan. "That's one of the reasons I'm so concerned and focused on China right now," he added.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government's "main concern" is getting more ammunition to the Ukrainians, who are running out, said Kupchan.

"I don't think either side has a structural advantage, in that they're both hurting pretty bad," he said.

It is also unlikely that Putin will invade Poland, said Kupchan. Putin "can't get a straight yes out" that Ukraine is a sovereign, independent country, he added.

"I don't think that he thinks of any other country like he thinks about Ukraine."

— Audrey Wan

China reiterated its call for peace talks and a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine

"All parties should support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible, so as to gradually deescalate the situation and ultimately reach a comprehensive ceasefire," China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

China added that it supports the International Atomic Energy Agency in playing a "constructive role in promoting the safety and security of peaceful nuclear facilities."

China said the international community should "help parties to the conflict open the door to a political settlement as soon as possible, and create conditions and platforms for the resumption of negotiation." It added it is ready to "play a constructive role in this regard"

 — Jihye Lee

The State Department warned U.S. citizens of a higher threat of missile attacks across Ukraine on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia's war.

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv urges U.S. citizens to "observe air alarms, shelter appropriately, follow guidance from local authorities" and take other safety precautions.

— Amanda Macias

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had not yet seen a Chinese plan for ending Russia's war on Ukraine but that he would welcome talks with Beijing.

China, a close Russian ally, has said it will set out its position on settling the Ukraine conflict through political means in a document that will take into account territorial integrity, sovereignty and security concerns.

Asked about prospects for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Zelenskyy told a news briefing in Kyiv: "We would like to meet with China."

"This is in the interests of Ukraine today," he told the joint briefing with visiting Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

— Reuters

Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force, said that much-needed ammunition for his troops had been dispatched, after a public row in which he accused the military leadership of treason.

Prigozhin had on Wednesday published a grisly image of dozens of men who he said had been killed because commanders including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov had withheld ammunition to spite him. Neither man commented but the ministry rejected the charge.

In an audio clip, Prigozhin said he felt the pressure he and others had put on the defense ministry had paid off, and that he had been told ammunition was now on its way.

Wagner has spearheaded Russia's months-old battle for the small city of Bakhmut in Ukraine's Donetsk region — a fact he has advertised loudly — and has helped Moscow make small but steady gains.

— Reuters

President Joe Biden and other G-7 leaders will meet virtually with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss additional ways to support Ukraine.

"The G7 has become the anchor of our strong and united response to Russia. Tomorrow the leaders will discuss how we continue supporting Ukraine and continue to increase pressure on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and all those who enable his aggression," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said during a daily news briefing.

"Among other announcements, the United States will implement sweeping sanctions against key sectors that generate revenue for Putin. Go after more Russian banks, Russia's defense and technology industry and actors in the third-party countries that are attempting to backfill and evade our sanctions," she added.

Jean-Pierre also said the Biden administration will announce new energy and security assistance to help the Ukrainian government provide electricity and heat throughout the country.

— Amanda Macias

European Union countries failed to agree on a new set of sanctions against Russia that they had planned to have in place for the one-year anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine on Friday, diplomatic sources told Reuters.

The 27 EU countries need to agree unanimously to introduce sanctions. The sources said Poland was blocking the package over proposed exemptions to a ban on EU imports of Russian synthetic rubber.

Polish diplomats said the exemptions were so big they would render the sanctions ineffective. Other sources said the exemptions were proposed to accommodate Italy, backed by Germany.

Representatives of the member states were due to meet again at 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday, the day Russia invaded Ukraine last year, to try seal a deal, according to the sources.

— Reuters

Ukraine will propose to Turkey and the United Nations the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to include the Mykolaiv seaport. 

Deputy Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Yuriy Vaskov said that by blocking Ukrainian ports, Russia violates international conventions on shipping. He called on the international community to intervene and restore Ukrainian ships' access to the sea.

In addition, Vaskov said that Ukraine will insist on increasing the number of inspection teams to eliminate the backlog of vessels that are awaiting inspection. Ukraine has previously blamed Russia for creating a backlog of ships.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia's naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen.

So far, more than 700 ships have sailed from Ukrainian ports.

— Amanda Macias

Finance ministers and central bank governors of the G-7 countries reaffirmed their "unwavering support of Ukraine" and "unity in our condemnation of Russia's war of aggression" in a joint statement released on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of its neighbor

"We remain determined to foster international cooperation to uphold multilateralism and address the global economic hardships caused by Russia's war and its weaponization of food and energy, which are disproportionately felt by low-and middle-income countries," the statement said.

The leaders are in India for the G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors ministerial meeting on Friday and Saturday.They have increased their budget commitment to the Ukrainian government to $39 billion for 2023 "based on the Government of Ukraine's needs," according to the statement.

The group also acknowledged contributions from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in supporting Ukraine's economic recovery. The statement further praises the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and the price caps on Russian oil products in depleting the Russian economy.

"We reject Russia's false narrative about the spillover effects of the sanctions on food and energy security. We reaffirm that our sanction measures targeting Russia are intended not to contribute to energy and food insecurity, while these measures are tailored to reduce Russia's ability to reap windfall profits from changes in global oil prices," the statement reads.

— Chelsey Cox

Russian President Vladimir Putin's brutal, year-long invasion of Ukraine has failed, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.

"One year later, Putin's war has been a strategic failure for the Kremlin. Ukraine still stands. And NATO and our global coalition stand united behind it," Yellen said during a press conference in Bengaluru, India, where she is participating in a bilateral meeting with Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

The Treasury chief also praised Ukraine's resistance against the Russian military and reiterated the U.S. government's financial commitment to aid Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in defending the country.

"Our military assistance includes key defensive weapons that Ukraine has asked for – such as the Patriot missile defense system," Yellen said. "And our economic assistance is making Ukraine's resistance possible by supporting the home front: funding critical public services and helping keep the government running. In the coming months, we expect to provide around $10 billion in additional economic support for Ukraine."

The U.S. has already given over $46 billion in security, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, Yellen said.

—Chelsey Cox

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said he saw progress in stalled talks with Turkey on Sweden's membership bid and aimed to have both Sweden and Finland join the alliance by the time of its July summit.

Stoltenberg told Reuters he and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had agreed that Turkey, Finland and Sweden would meet at NATO headquarters mid-March "to address the challenges we face when it comes to Turkish ratification of the Swedish accession protocol."

Stoltenberg, who met Erdogan last week in Ankara, sounded more upbeat on the topic than in past months.

"I see progress," he said in an interview. "My aim is to have both Finland and Sweden as full members by the NATO summit," due to take place in Lithuania from July 11-12.

— Reuters

The temperature outside Klaus Mueller's office almost resembles spring, exactly the kind of mild weather that helped Germany get through the winter without Russian natural gas.

But Germany's chief utility regulator is not ready to sound the all clear on an energy crisis spawned by the war in Ukraine, even with natural gas reserves abundant and prices well down from their peak.

Too much could go wrong — especially if consumers and companies grow weary of the conservation habits they learned during a winter fraught with fear of rolling blackouts and rationing, Mueller, head of the Federal Network Agency, said in an interview Wednesday with The Associated Press.

Plus, there's next winter to think about.

Other risks, such as a pipeline accident or a sudden cold snap, could set back plans to keep natural gas storage as full as possible as Europe learns to live without the cheap Russian gas that fueled its economy for decades.

— Associated Press

Two vessels carrying about 96,895 metric tons of grain and other food products have left Ukrainian ports, the organization overseeing the export of agriculture from the country said.

The ships are destined for Italy and Portugal and are carrying corn.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia's naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen.

So far, more than 700 ships have sailed from Ukrainian ports.

— Amanda Macias

Ukrainian Railways CEO Alexander Kamyshin shared the story behind U.S. President Joe Biden's secret trip to Kyiv.

In a Twitter thread, Kamyshin described the project as "complicated" but added that it "was an honor and a privilege for me and the whole Iron Team to deal with this visit."

Kamyshin also dubbed the train that Biden traveled in "Rail Force One" to play off of the transportation typically used by U.S. presidents.

— Amanda Macias

Western European countries should be faster and more generous in supplying Ukraine with weapons, Polish Premier Mateusz Morawiecki said in Copenhagen after meeting Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen.

"I would like them to be exactly like Denmark and Poland. A longer version is to be more generous in terms of weapon delivery and more quick," Morawiecki told reporters.

— Reuters

Demonstrators have painted the Ukrainian flag on the road outside the Russian embassy in London on Thursday ahead of the first anniversary of the war Friday.

The protest was purportedly carried out by campaign group Led By Donkeys, which said on Twitter Thursday:

"Tomorrow is the first anniversary of Putin's imperialist invasion of Ukraine, an independent state and a people with every right to self-determination. The existence of a massive Ukrainian flag outside his embassy in London will serve to remind him of that."

— Holly Ellyatt

The Hungarian parliament will begin debating the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland next week, according to its provisional schedule.

It shows that Hungary's parliament could vote on the issue during the week of Mar. 6. Hungary and Turkey are the only two NATO members that have so far withheld their approvals to integrate the Nordic countries into the military alliance.

Finland and Sweden jointly applied to enter the coalition in May, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine forced a departure from their long-standing policy of military non-alignment. Ankara objects in particular to the bid of Sweden, whom it accuses of harboring alleged members of the Kurdish Workers' Party, which both countries designate as a terrorist organization.

Ongoing delays have raised questions over whether Sweden and Finland's application processes will be delinked. But Sweden's Foreign Minister Tobias Billström told CNBC earlier this week that Stockholm and Helsinki's admission into NATO was "just a matter of time."

— Ruxandra Iordache

On the eve of the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has condemned Russia's ongoing aggression.

"Russia has chosen the path of the murderer. The path of the terrorist. The path of the torturer. The path of the looter. This is the state choice of Russia, and there will be state responsibility for the terror committed," Zelenskyy said on Telegram in a post accompanied with images of the war.

"Dozens, hundreds of thousands of photos that leave deep scars in your heart and soul. They remind us of the path we have gone from February to February. It must be in our DNA," the president added.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine would prevail and would "hold to account all those who brought this evil, this war to our land."

Ukraine has accused Russia of committing multiple war crimes, from launching missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals, to the use of torture on prisoners of war and civilians. Russia has denied targeting civilians during the war, despite multiple instances of civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, being struck by Russian missiles, and has also accused Ukraine of committing war crimes, including the execution of prisoners of war, which Ukraine denies.

UN-appointed independent human rights investigators said that war crimes have indeed been committed in the conflict. It said last September, after an initial inquiry, that while Ukrainian forces were responsible for some human rights violations, a larger number of instances that amount to war crimes had been carried out by Russian forces.

— Holly Ellyatt

China's Foreign Ministry said any potential intelligence on arms transfer by China to Russia that the United States plans to release is just speculation, its spokesman said on Thursday.

"As for the so-called intel, this is just speculation and smearing against China," Wang Wenbin said at a regular briefing.

The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that the U.S. government is considering releasing intelligence on China considering supplying weapons to Russia.

— Reuters

Ukraine's armed forces in the north of the country said Thursday that they believe Russia's forces are preparing for possible provocations on the first anniversary of their invasion.

Ukraine's North Operational Command said on Telegram today that Russian forces "are preparing possible provocations for the anniversary of the full-scale offensive, most likely, the goal is to accuse the Ukrainian defenders of violating territorial integrity," according to a Google translation of the post. 

The North Operational Command said its suspicions were "evidenced by intelligence data, which recorded the movement of columns of military equipment in the area of ​​the border with the Chernihiv region [in northern Ukraine] without identification marks and manpower dressed in a pixel [camouflage], similar to the uniform of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

The Command unit issued a later statement reiterating that its warning was about possible Russian provocations and not "about any actions that have taken place."

CNBC was unable to verify the information in the report but both sides have accused each other of preparing possible provocations and "false flag" attacks as the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine approaches on Friday.

— Holly Ellyatt