Tony Dwyer, chief equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity, admits he has a reputation for being, as he put it, "an uber-bull." And with a year-end S&P 500 target 9 percent above Tuesday's opening price, that reputation may be warranted. However, he says that bears who myopically focus on the potential ramifications of the Federal Reserve's actions are missing a key lesson of investing.
"There will be a time when I'm just as bearish as I am bullish," Dwyer said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." But "'this will end badly' is a statement that has killed performance for decades. It end badly, [but that thesis] is not investible right now until the Fed begins to aggressively raise rates."
Dwyer believes that those who say the market is "propped up" by the Fed are somewhat missing the point.
"The first half of an economic cycle is always Fed driven. Think about it like putting a fire-starter log to get an outdoor fire going. Eventually, that log is going to have to transfer the energy to the natural wood. And I think that's kind of what's happening in the economy now," Dwyer said. "I think there's real evidence, through consumer confidence, income numbers, payroll data, that you're getting that loan demand that is getting transferred to the wood."