Tony Dwyer, chief equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity, admits he has a reputation for being, as he put it, "an uber-bull." And with a year-end target 9 percent above Tuesday's opening price, that reputation may be warranted. However, he says that bears who myopically focus on the potential ramifications of the Federal Reserve's actions are missing a key lesson of investing.
"There will be a time when I'm just as bearish as I am bullish," Dwyer said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." But "'this will end badly' is a statement that has killed performance for decades. It end badly, [but that thesis] is not investible right now until the Fed begins to aggressively raise rates."
Dwyer believes that those who say the market is "propped up" by the Fed are somewhat missing the point.
"The first half of an economic cycle is always Fed driven. Think about it like putting a fire-starter log to get an outdoor fire going. Eventually, that log is going to have to transfer the energy to the natural wood. And I think that's kind of what's happening in the economy now," Dwyer said. "I think there's real evidence, through consumer confidence, income numbers, payroll data, that you're getting that loan demand that is getting transferred to the wood."
Calls for the end of quantitative easing to lead to bear market are specious, he said.
"I'm sticking with the history. Since the early 1950s, in order to get a sustainable bear market, you need negative earnings. To get negative earnings, you need a negative economic backdrop. To do that, you need an inversion of the yield-curve that is Fed-driven because of a ramp in expectations for core inflation."
Instead, Dwyer is maintaining his year-end S&P target of 2,230. He says the market will continue to rise due to a combination of earnings growth and valuation expansion.
However, for some traders, the market looks to be out of steam.
Since the market's nadir on Oct. 15, "we've seen a 10 percent rip. I think this is just too much, too fast," said Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial. "It just feels a little bit exhausted, kind of like the engine is running out of gas."
—By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg.
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