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After lofty views, economists see second-quarter growth bumping along at same slow trend

  • Second-quarter GDP growth was tracking at 2.5 percent Friday, according to the CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update.
  • The cut was the latest to a number that had been as high as 3.8 percent early in the quarter.
  • Economists cut the tracking number after weaker retail sales.
An employee pushes a row of shopping carts into a Costco Wholesale Corp. store in East Peoria, Illinois, U.S.
Bloomberg | Getty Images
An employee pushes a row of shopping carts into a Costco Wholesale Corp. store in East Peoria, Illinois, U.S.

Economists in the CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update now see second-quarter GDP growth tracking at 2.5 percent, in line with the slow pace of the last several years.

Economists had seen the second quarter tracking as high as 3.8 percent early in the quarter. But the growth outlook has rolled back as data failed to meet expectations. Quarterly GDP growth has chugged along at mostly around 2 percent since late 2014.

The latest cuts to second-quarter tracking followed Friday's June reports of CPI, retail sales, and industrial production. First-quarter growth was 1.2 percent.

The Atlanta Fed cut its forecast by 0.2 percent to 2.4 Friday, and Goldman Sachs shaved 0.1 from its forecast to 1.9 percent, based mainly on a surprise 0.2 percent decline in retail sales.

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