Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Saturday, 2 Jul 2016 | 4:59 PM ET

Chart watcher boasts US stocks 'best port in a storm' after Brexit scare

Posted ByBrian Price

Ralph Acampora, sometimes referred to as the godfather of technical analysis, believes markets are poised for a big run now that the smoke has cleared on the U.K.'s referendum on European Union membership.

"There was technical damage [last] Friday and Monday" following the U.K.'s vote to leave the E.U., and "I thought we could go a little bit lower," the director of tactical investments for Altaira Limited told CNBC's "Futures Now" this week.

"I was right for about 30 seconds," he joked. Since the global selloff following the Brexit, about 70 to 80 percent of U.S. index losses have been recovered.

"We've had an unbelievable reversal," observed Acampora. "I've been looking at charts for 50 years and this is quite a head fake."

The technician added that the upward movement has been very broad-based, and noted that the low level of bond yields make equities much more attractive. On Thursday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury dipped to 1.45 percent from 1.5 percent, while the German bund yield settled at a new record low of -0.13 percent—a negative yield.

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  Thursday, 30 Jun 2016 | 1:47 PM ET

'The end is coming,' says Ron Paul

Posted ByAmanda Diaz

The historic U.K. vote to leave the European Union is a sign of a major global meltdown, not just a watershed that marks the end of a unified continent, former Rep. Ron Paul says.

"I think [the EU] will become nonfunctional," Paul told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday.

"It really is coming to an end. It doesn't mean tomorrow or the next day, but people are going to be really unhappy. The end is coming, but it isn't coming because of the breakup," he added.

Paul attributed the fallout to "bad fiscal policies" around the globe. He said that as long as interest rates remain low, the markets will remain in bubble territory.

"I think what everyone is looking at is there was a vote, an important vote and it went differently than expected and it sent shock waves through the markets, but I think the concentration is on the wrong issue," the former Libertarian and Republican Party presidential candidate said.

Instead, he said, what has caused so much turmoil is what happened before the recent declines.

"What has been preceding this situation that we have throughout the world and this country as well is artificially low interest rates. It causes people to make mistakes in buying bonds," he said.

All major U.S. indexes fell back into negative territory for 2016 on Friday and Monday after the Brexit vote, getting a twinge of relief on Tuesday. Still, Paul expects a heap of market weakness to come.

"Catastrophe doesn't come unless there's something that precedes it, and what sets the stage is monetary policy, artificially low interest rates, zero interest rates," he said. "There's a lot of instability still out there, and this hasn't been corrected yet. I don't think it's going to correct easily," he said.

"We are running out of steam."

»Read more
  Friday, 24 Jun 2016 | 2:22 PM ET

Analyst warns that crude could be in ‘purgatory’ after the summer

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Oil has hovered around the $50 range since mid-May, and with summer travel almost in full swing one analyst thinks that rising demand will keep crude fairly stable for the next few months.

Come fall, however, a different story may start to emerge.

Tom Kloza, Global Head of Energy Analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, believes that high demand for gasoline means that crude will sit at a $50 "comfort point" for the next two months or so. Still, Kloza thinks there could be a fairly sizable drop after September rolls around

"We saw the highest demand ever, we used something on the order of 59 million gallons a day of gasoline," he said last week on CNBC's "Futures Now." "That will prove as something that will help crude out for the next 8 or 10 weeks."

The problem will surface after that period he said, when buoyant oil will "go into purgatory in the fall," he added.

"You have lower refinery runs, you have a lot of gasoline because there are a lot of cheap hydrocarbons, and you have a drop of maybe 4 to 5 percent in demand even if the macroeconomic background is very steady," he added.

A whole host of international events could also derail oil's current stability. Kloza describedthe reaction to the Brexit results as "orderly and predictable" in an email Friday to CNBC. Yet he sees other global troubles as being more directly threatening to oil than the U.K.'s exit out of the European Union.

"In the fall, there's no question there's going to be a challenge in the marketplace, particularly if you see production in some of the places like Nigeria and Kurdistan will ramp higher," said Kloza.

"I think we [also] have to worry about Gulf Coast hurricanes, which could knock out Gulf of Mexico production crude-side and really wreak havoc on the refined products side," the analyst added.

Investors with their eye on oil shouldn't discount the timeline leading up to the U.S. election this November, especially when trying to gauge demand in the fall.

"The question is really whether or not it's a driving season thing and what happens after Labor Day," Kloza explained. "You've got an election where people aren't very happy with the choices, and they may show that it may not be to vote with [their] feet, but to vote with [their] cars in traffic."

Oil dropped by more than 4 percent during Friday trading following the U.K.'s referendum results. Risk assets opened sharply lower in early trading on Sunday as investors continued to grapple with the fallout.

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  Friday, 24 Jun 2016 | 9:43 AM ET

Brexit is upon us, so here’s how low the market might go: Trader

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Global stocks plunged and the S&P posted its worst open in 30 years after British voters approved a U.K. exit from the EU. Just how low will markets go, and for how long?

According to NorthmanTrader.com founder Sven Henrich, 1,950 could be the number to watch on the S&P 500. Looking at a chart of the S&P 500's key levels, Henrich had predicted that the index could have climbed to as high as 2,150 had the U.K. had chosen to remain in the European Union. But now with the Brexit referendum settled in favor of the leave camp, those levels are unlikely, especially given that the S&P 500 looks to be staying in its months-long trading range.

"We've been in a range, nothing has changed in that regard," Henrich said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "But every time the S&P 500 gets above 2,100, volume kind of dies and the marginal buyers are disappearing. So we need some sort of trigger to get buying in."

Henrich emphasized that regardless of the Brexit vote, global markets are still unpredictable.

"What happens then? That's the big question because I see a lot of divergences outside of the S&P 500, because a lot of industries are not following the S&P 500 here," he said. "If you look at the Dow, or the ICE, the financials or the DAX, they're all far below their 52-week highs."

But what has Henrich even more on his toes is the Federal Reserve. The trader points out that Janet Yellen's testimony brought up some issues that are actually "more important than Brexit."

"They admitted that the forward price-to-earnings ratio of equities is actually increasing to a level well above their median price for the past three decades," said Henrich. "At the same time, they're talking about productivity lagging. In fact, productivity the last five years, the growth grade has been lower than any time period since World War II. They're talking about fixed business investment declining and industrial production falling."

"At the same time, they're saying that equity prices are vulnerable to rises in term premiums at more normal levels, meaning that if we suddenly see some sort of move, equity prices could correct," he added.

U.S. markets plunged Friday morning following the vote, with the S&P 500 seeing its worst open since 1986. The Nasdaq and the Dow were also down more than 2 and 3 percent respectively following the opening bell.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 22 Jun 2016 | 2:28 PM ET

If you sold in May, JPM says you’ll regret it. Here’s why

Posted ByBrian Price

"Sell in May and go away."

It's a familiar phrase that was coined to describe a trader's decision to put money on the sidelines before heading to the Hamptons or Nantucket.

However, JPMorgan says that taking a vacation from stocks this summer will ultimately be a mistake for investors.

"We've had a couple of tough summers that are fresh in people's memory," said Stephen Parker on CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday. "But, if you look back over the long term, history is not in your favor to sell in May and go away."

The head of thematic equity solutions for JPMorgan Private Bank believes that, even as the S&P 500 has risen 2 percent in the past month, more gains are to be expected. He noted that, since 1970, markets have actually rallied over the summer nearly 67 percent of the time.

However, while Parker warned that the period of time between Memorial Day and Labor Day tends to see more volatility, that can be in favor of bullish investors, since "we've had more 10 percent rallies over the summer than we have had declines."

Furthermore, Parker remains undeterred from the volatility that could stem from a Brexit. Regardless of how the U.K. votes on Thursday, he says that the market is ready because "de-risking" is already baked into investor's strategies.

"We're set up for a potential positive surprise heading into the rest of the summer," said Parker in his coverage. "History shows that market moves leading up to or immediately after some of these binary events often correct rather quickly."

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  Sunday, 19 Jun 2016 | 5:01 PM ET

Brexit vote could cause huge buying opportunity: Wells Fargo

Britain's upcoming referendum on whether to quit the European Union has created considerable market volatility. According to one Wall Street firm, however, investors who panic and sell if the Brexit wins will do so at their own peril.

"If there is an exit vote, you know we want our clients in here stepping in to buy U.S. large-cap stocks," Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute's senior global equity strategist, said recently on CNBC's "Futures Now." "After we get finished with the noise and the volatility, after a few weeks of that, you know people will have wished they bought stocks."

Britain will hold a referendum June 23 on whether to leave or remain in the 28-member European Union. British advocates of leaving believe the country is being held back by the political and economic union.

Wells Fargo hasn't issued any official odds on the likelihood of a Brexit. But other firms, such as Morgan Stanley, put the probability just below 50 percent.

"I think that whatever outcome this vote is, it is in no way, shape or form going to change the trajectory of the domestic economy in particular or the international economy over the next 12 to 18 months," he said.

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  Saturday, 18 Jun 2016 | 4:00 PM ET

US economy just 'doesn't want to grow up:' BofA's Contopoulos

The United States, along with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, are stuck overseeing 'Peter Pan' economies that refuse to wean themselves off cheap money policies.

That assessment comes from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research's head of high yield and relative value strategy, who saidFederal Reservechair Janet Yellen and her global central banking counterparts have been reduced to little more than high ranking babysitters.

"A Peter Pan economy is an economy that just doesn't want to grow up," Michael Contopoulos recently told "Fast Money."The central bankers of the U.S., Japan and Europe "are like three nannies managing the economies. And, that's what they're supposed to be doing.

Speaking about the central banks' mandate for price stability, Contopoulos added: "If you think about it, their job is to spur inflation and growth. It's to baby the economies forward. It's just not happening though."

The analysis coming as the ten-year Treasury note yield fell to multi-year lows this week, breaking the 1.60 percent mark. Meanwhile, the Fed decided leave interest rates unchanged.

"I think rates could go lower. You have ten trillion of negative yielding assets globally. Treasuries, U.S. investment grade and U.S. high-yield are virtually some of the only assets available right now with a positive yield," said Contopoulos, who drives the firm's view on cross assets and the high yield and loan markets. "Fundamentals are weak."

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  Friday, 17 Jun 2016 | 2:17 PM ET

Gold is going to $1,450, and these charts prove it: Technical analyst

Posted ByBrian Price

As gold hit the highest level in nearly two years, one technical analyst is certain that major gains are in store for the precious metal.

"Gold is going to $1,450," Zev Spiro said on "Futures Now" on Thursday, a day on which gold rose as high as $1,318 before retreating back below $1,300. Gold was around $1,296 on Friday afternoon, up about 1.5 percent this week and on pace for its third positive week in a row.

"Once we get to $1,306 to $1,308 and hold, I suspect we can push higher within two to three months."

Spiro looked back to March, when prices moved above what he described as a two-year long descending channel. At that time, "the breakout signaled higher prices with a minimum price objective in the $1,450 area," he said.

He also explained that prices could extend beyond this minimum objective to test the $1,525 to $1,550 area, "which was a level of support from 2011 to 2013, that is now overhead resistance."

Ultimately, Spiro believes the landscape for gold remains positive because of the sell-off in May, when prices tested and held above a key range of $1,190 to $1,205.

"The hold of that support reinforced significance of the $1,190 to $1,205 level and it led to the sharp rally we've seen over the past two weeks," he said, noting that gold prices have rallied nearly 7 percent in June.

Spiro also said gold moved above a key level of resistance that's formed by connecting the highs from January and May, when gold prices surpassed $1,308 and $1,306, respectively.

"If we get a hold above $1,306 to $1,308, that would confirm a breakout above this level, which would be positive and signal a continuation of the larger uptrend," he said.

Spiro also said that in the coming weeks, "digestion" of a rally is healthy, and that there may a brief short-term consolidation before a breakout.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 15 Jun 2016 | 11:56 AM ET

The Fed has been mugged by reality: Boockvar

Posted ByBrian Price

For investors anxiously awaiting Wednesday's Fed announcement, Peter Boockvar has a clear message: Your fears are misplaced.

The managing director and chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group explained that a rate hike in June or in July is unlikely. Furthermore, he reasoned that traders should look across the pond to the U.K. if they're in need of reasons to worry.

"The market has tossed the Fed aside," said Boockvar. "They've been mugged by the reality of the global economy continuing to shrink."

The Brexit vote is just eight days away and favorable sentiment toward leaving the European Union continues to grow within the U.K. As it stands, Boockvar described a British departure from the EU as an occurrence that would create a dangerous ripple effect across global markets in the near term.

"If the Brits vote to leave, it can take two years for it to physically happen and so much can happen within that time frame," said Boockvar, who predicted that Italy, Spain and Portugal could also follow the U.K.'s example. From here, he fears that a mass exodus from the EU could trigger a global recession. This belief stems from the notion that the bloc has established rules that do not entice member countries to want to stay.

"Think about the euro. It actually was a great idea. If I'm Italy and you're Spain we can do business," noted Boockvar, who says that ease of conducting commerce in Europe no longer exists because of bureaucracy. "They need to decentralize power out of Brussels and give it more to the individual countries."

He also blamed the European Central Bank for "mucking things up" and racking up serious debt in efforts to establish a one-size-fits-all monetary policy in Europe.

"To me, the ECB is the biggest threat to this whole experiment," said Boockvar, who added that it's near impossible to find a common financial platform for countries like Germany, France, Italy and Greece to operate across.

Additionally, Boockvar remains skeptical of Europe's ability to ease the potential panic on a "leave" vote as he feels that the general public has become repulsed with today's leadership.

"What we're seeing with central banks, our own presidential election, in the U.K., potential in the vote in Spain is disgust with the establishment," said Boockvar, referring to the general election in Spain. Now, with people losing their faith in central banks, he sees monetary policies losing a grip on their ability to maintain calm in the marketplace.

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  Wednesday, 15 Jun 2016 | 7:37 AM ET

An unusual pattern points to more upside in just weeks

An unusual trend has emerged in the stock market, and there's an 80 percent chance it could lift stocks higher within the next month.

That's the latest call from FBN Securities Chief Market Technician JC O'Hara, based on his tracking of a phenomenon regarding the length in time in between so-called distribution days.

"A key distribution day is when ... there are five times as many decliners as there are advancers — as well as five times as much volume in the declining stocks as in the advancing stocks on the day," O'Hara said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "When those two conditions are met, you have what we call a 'distribution day.' So, the markets traded 44 days, that's roughly two months without a distribution. Now, to put those 44 days in perspective, the market typically has a distribution day every nine days. "

While the definition is highly technical, the gist is that a distribution day is a session in which it appears that large holders of stock are selling. Those who track them believe that they lend insight into what large investors are doing, which could inform how the market is likely to behave.

After that long 44-day dry spell, an interesting thing happened. The S&P 500 saw two distribution days in a row on Friday and Monday.

"We went back in history and said what happens if you go two months without a distribution day, we have back-to-back distribution days — how does the market react?" he asked.

The answer: a short-term drop followed by intermediate-term gains.

O'Hara, who calls himself bullish, says it's important to watch how the bulls react to any potential pullbacks — since it's been a relatively easy ride for them over the past three months.

If the bulls are resilient and bounce back quickly, then it's a sign that the markets are in a very strong place, he said.

He predicts the S&P 500 could move 6.5 percent higher within a month, putting the index at 2,200.

»Read more

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